I put "not sure" because of 3 factors.

1. Will the PS4 have a pricecut?

2. If there is a pricecut, will Sony provide adequate stock?

3. Will there be a NSW+Mario Kart or Odyssey/BOTW/Splatoon bundle?

If there is no pricecut or stock is very minimal then Nintendo should win. I don't think either of the 3 big consoles will "dominate" though. At most I'd expect a 45/30/25 split or something.

Well, Nintendo predicted 20M sales for Switch for the FY, while Sony predicted 16M sales for PS4. This difference has to happen sometime. Even if we assume the Switch falls short and the PS4 is still stronger, the difference is just too big.

I agree with that. Europe will be a hard nut to crack fpr Nintendo.

Well, about that. Sure they said it is a core-RPG of the series. But still the next gen core-RPG is coming next year. So you have following facts to consider:

• the game has the qualifier "Let's Go" to it, instead of just being Pokemon
• it is gen 1, not gen 8
• a new classical core-RPG is already announced

I think Gamefreak isn't sure themself. If they were this was the way to go, Let's Go would be without qualifier the next Pokemon RPG with gen 8. It is not. It is a new series. But Gamefreak also expects it might have potential. I personally think, the Let's Go series (and I expect a series, if they start with Gen 1) has the potential to be the same to Pokemon, that Persona was for SMT. Still, in that relation Persona is the spinoff, only a very successful spinoff, that made a name of it's own.

If Sony planned a price-cut for this holiday, they would have integrated that into their forecast - which is 16M for the FY and down against the year before. So it seems unlikely for me.

Were they were outselling everything over the holidays?

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/43093/Global/

Looks like a smaller gap than Black Friday.

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/43065/Global/

I don't think so, but it will definitely do well this holiday season.

Pokemon: Let's Go is about as much of a "remake" as the new FF VII remake is both of which aren't and are technically "reimagining" of the original titles and in pokemon's case it could be the start of a new series as previously mentioned ...

Rarely has a Pokemon spin-off sold in massive (think 5M+ units) quantities and the closest it recently got was Pokemon Mystery Dungeon for the DS and Pokemon spin-offs thereafter came nowhere near the fraction of selling like traditional Pokemon since then. It does help that Pokemon: Let's Go will have a closer feature set to the mainline series than Pokemon Stadium or Pokemon Mystery Dungeon did but perception will mean a lot in it's case if too many previous customers disregard it as the "successor" to the mainline franchise then those changes will act as a detriment against it considering the already high barrier to entry ... ($360)

We also don't know much the new Smash title itself on whether it's a full blown new successor or an enhanced rerelease with extra content and if it's the latter then it would noticeably dampen the the expectations which could potentially affect it's system selling power of which the appeal of the series itself already has a great amount of overlap with Nintendo's biggest IPs since it's advertised as an arcade fighter battle royale between their most recognizable icons ... (it's hardly believable that Smash has it's own largely independent fandom)

We also don't know the entire pricing strategy either and the lineup could change during E3 this year but the fact that the PS4 has been performing more strongly on NPD than the Switch has so far this year compared to last year (in spite of the fact that the PS4 lost to the Switch in most of the NPD reports yet still came out on top in the last quarter during last year) and will likely continue to do so throughout the summer would seem to indicate that it is the PS4 coming in with the advantage in momentum at least for North America when the holiday's come around ...

Switch does not have a clear definitive advantage against the PS4 this time around in North America so it will not be able to build up a sizable lead against it during the holidays or if it even will have a lead so the Switch would have to be highly dependent on it's growth this year in Japan (will be interesting if it will be able to keep up in July this year since last year during that month released with Splatoon 2 which nearly doubled the sales of that month) and Europe to have a shot at beating the PS4 this holiday quarter ...

Dont forget Asia or Japan alone, in Japan alone Pokemon and Smash will easily do 2m+ for Switch.

Nothing, just point that we talking about biggest and most popular Nintendo IP that always sell tons of consoles, 3DS also had huge boost in sales with every released Pokemon game, and now we talking about 1st HD Pokemon game and 1st Pokemon game for Switch.

Talking about NPD sales this year, Switch just starting to receiving stronger games. You also said that Switch sales will fail of a cliff after Holiday 2017. :)

Yeah, to bad that Smash Bros and Pokemon are not big holiday titles and actualy one biggest Nintendo IPs and system seller games..