I don't really see any reason why the Wii U is going to outsell the GameCube in Japan, and that sold around 3.5 million in Japan right? And the console market has shrunk there since the early 2000s. 

The N64 sold 5 mill or so there.

Aside from the Wii, Nintendo's pretty fairly irrelevant in the Japanese console business for a long time now.

Though I think it's almost a lock that PS4 will also be the lowest selling Sony console in Japan to date. 

Ps4 will double Wii U sales in Japan easily. Wii sold 50% of its sales in a year and a half. With the same for Wii U that means 3.6m. Ps3 only had 1.3m after a year.

It's not only home consoles, though they've arguably been hit the hardest, the dedicated handheld market will also be severely down this gen, it's just the market is shifting to another type of gaming entirely, the more interesting question would be if this development is going to be premanent or if it#ll go back someday.

OT: With the amount of games for the japanese market that the PS4 has right now being more or less zero (not counting crossgen games here), it seems to be pretty difficult to really estimate the potential the PS4 has in Japan. The Wii U on the other hand already has some historically pretty big hitters for Japan out on the console and is still selling pretty much... well bad, now if this is a problem with the console or with the market itself is something we'll see when the PS4 gets some big japanese games.

In Japan? Hmm. It's unlikely, but I suppose not outside the realms of possibility. Depends on how well the system does post MK8 and Smash, as well as a few other factors.

I'd still expect the PS4 to "win", and by a comfortable margin, But I guess stranger things have happened.

I really would like to see someone making a chart compating wiiu x PS4 performace in japan so far. Vgcharts really should have a option to compare consoles launch alined.

This year's Golden Week will be interesting, being the PS4's first and the Wii U's second, both could see respectable gains but perhaps lower than anticipated with the tax hike that just went into effect. I'll be interested to see how things play out through the first week of May. If the Wii U can find a way to outsell the PS4 through Golden Week it may have a ghost of a chance.

Hmm, I'm not so sure we can use the 7th gen a template for the 8th gen, things have changed. The Japanses console market won't accomodate sellers like the Wii or PS2 any longer. As I've said; I do think the PS4 will more but not a whole lot and certainly not double. I'm also banking on this being a fairly short generation, especially compared to the almost supernatural 7th gen which had three relevant contenders after the time where two have usually dropped off almost entirely.

I dont get where this consoles are irrelevant in Japan talk came from.

PS2+GC+Xbox=27.75 million

PS3+Wii+360=24.33 million

Everyone here is expecting over a 50% decrease from last gen but given the games released in japan so far it's definitely plausible ...

No, it just means that japanese won't pay 40000 yen for a machine with no games that they want.