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I don't really see any reason why the Wii U is going to outsell the GameCube in Japan, and that sold around 3.5 million in Japan right? And the console market has shrunk there since the early 2000s. 

The N64 sold 5 mill or so there.

Aside from the Wii, Nintendo's pretty fairly irrelevant in the Japanese console business for a long time now.

Though I think it's almost a lock that PS4 will also be the lowest selling Sony console in Japan to date.