Forums - Sales Discussion - Vita vs. Vita

How the Vita will do in the second year?

Worse (<3 million)
Same (3-4 million)
Better (4-7 million)
Doubling (>7 million)

To explain why I do that graphs in this thread: I'm interested in the success of the Vita. Yes, I'm owning more Nintendo-consoles at the moment, but I want to love the Vita - it is a great piece of hardware. So far it doesn't have enough games I interested in, but some more Atlus-RPGs might change that. Also competition makes NIntendo to try harder - something that is in the end good for me and other gamers. So I want the Vita to be successful.

But so far it doesn't look great for the Vita. But the good point is: Sony have shown, that they try hard to keep it afloat. It seems they will keep it that way in the future.

So most interesting is 3rd-party support. And for 3rd-parties it will be interesting how the sales for Vita develop. So I thought it would be interesting to compare the first year of the Vita with the second.

Vita sold around 3.5 million in it's first year (with later launch in europe and america). I say if it sell considerably worse in it's second year - not so good. Say if it sells under 3 million, Vita is really in trouble. If it sells around the same - 3 to 4 million - it's not good but probably Sony can keep it alive. If it sells better, say 4-7 million, some 3rd-party will support the system and it will much likely survive the whole gen. If it doubles sales (>7 million) it might become a success like the PSP. What do you think will happen?

But now to the graphs. First of all, global YTD and weekly sales (the weekly sales cover Jan-Dec):

Don't forget, that Vita launched later in europe and the US.

USA:

europe:

Japan:

And I made a gap-chart for the global YTD-sales. That means I calculate YTD-sales-2013 - YTD-sales-2012 and display the development of this gap. A positive number means, the Vita sold 2013 more than 2012, a negative number it sold 2012 more.

I will try to keep the graphs updated as the year goes on. All data from VGChartz. For everyone interested, the graphs are made with this file (use the free gnumeric to access).

Discuss the data and your expectations for the second year of the Vita.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh

ietm

predict! / Can 3DS outsell PSP? / Does Vita have better 3rd-party support in 2014 than 3DS?

Bet with platformmaster918 and ethomaz about PS3 overtaking Wii in total sales.

Bet with Lawlight: How many PS3 will Sony ship over 2013. He wins if that are more than 11 million, I win if it are less.

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To little information to go off of right now. It would be like me trying to predict how well each console would sell next generation off of the information we have now.

I'll be able to make my prediction after e3 or whenever they give us their holiday software lineup.

I'd say better than last year. I mean it's hard to get worse than last year to be honest, but I would go with 7-8 million in sales (I hope because I don't want Sony to abandon the Vita)

too little information for me atm. when does the price get cut? the later the cut the less likely it will be up or even equal YoY. the only thing i'm willing to rule out is "sensational" at this point.

        

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JayWood2010 said:
To little information to go off of right now. It would be like me trying to predict how well each console would sell next generation off of the information we have now.

I'll be able to make my prediction after e3 or whenever they give us their holiday software lineup.

No need to make a prediction. This shouldn't be a prediction thread, I want to follow the weekly data. But I'm also interested in what people think. So if you say now this and after E3 that it is OK.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh

ietm

predict! / Can 3DS outsell PSP? / Does Vita have better 3rd-party support in 2014 than 3DS?

Bet with platformmaster918 and ethomaz about PS3 overtaking Wii in total sales.

Bet with Lawlight: How many PS3 will Sony ship over 2013. He wins if that are more than 11 million, I win if it are less.

Nintendomination

Around the Network
kitler53 said:
too little information for me atm. when does the price get cut? the later the cut the less likely it will be up or even equal YoY. the only thing i'm willing to rule out is "sensational" at this point.

Well, everything is possible. Some big game (think Monster Hunter) might increase sales. Also we don't know yet about connectivity between Vita and PS4, might be Sony has something innovative.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh

ietm

predict! / Can 3DS outsell PSP? / Does Vita have better 3rd-party support in 2014 than 3DS?

Bet with platformmaster918 and ethomaz about PS3 overtaking Wii in total sales.

Bet with Lawlight: How many PS3 will Sony ship over 2013. He wins if that are more than 11 million, I win if it are less.

Nintendomination

When 7 million became sensational??? lol lol lol

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Did you include the 2011 Japan sales?

Because those should not be included with 2012.

Mnementh said:
JayWood2010 said:
To little information to go off of right now. It would be like me trying to predict how well each console would sell next generation off of the information we have now.

I'll be able to make my prediction after e3 or whenever they give us their holiday software lineup.

No need to make a prediction. This shouldn't be a prediction thread, I want to follow the weekly data. But I'm also interested in what people think. So if you say now this and after E3 that it is OK.


Well up until E3 it will sell slightly less seeing as last year it was brand new and people were hyped about it.  This year their is no hype surrounding it and most people just bash it now.  I'll wait until after e3 for my second half of the year's prediction



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At this stage I'll say worse. I would change my opinion, possibly, with a price cut or a killer game. I think the price cut is coming but I don't know about a killer game. PSP didn't have major 1st party titles and the 3rd party support seems to have moved to 3DS. With 3DS taking major gamers and other devices battling for mulit-purpose users, Vita could see it's niche shrink. Like everyone else says it's too early to say, but that's what it looks like to me right now.

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