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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - why do people think 360 will come in third?

Lost tears of Kain on 04 November 2007

Your predictions on the bottom are terrible mitsuhide you should change them\

ps3 will need to sell 3 million, not impossible unlikely though

360 is already at 12.75 million, its going to probably easly go over 14 million to around 15-17 million


Your wii is to small unless they get major supply constrained



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
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mitsuhide on 04 November 2007

I am not like Soriku(as in he changes his ALOT) i made those predictions 4-6month ago and am not going to change them even though the X360 are too low they weren't when i made them.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

mitsuhide on 04 November 2007

Second thought i will change them but i will put a message saying they where changed.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

mitsuhide on 04 November 2007

You asked politely so i shall Rol.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

Steve 3.2 on 04 November 2007

I think a lot of it has to do with momentum, past performance, and consumer perception. This year should be the 360's biggest holiday season in it's lifespan. After this, sales should decline each year. The question is, will MS be able to buck that trend? It has some things going for it -- it's still more than the 'mass market price' of $200 and there are some heavy hitting games on the horizon. But the defining game of the console, Halo 3, didn't seem to move many units after launching. And there will be no Halo 4. So besides GTA IV, what other game does MS have to move units? And will MS be able to get it together to deliver the 360 at a mass market price that will ignite consumer demand in 2008?

While Sony has misfired more times than anyone wants to count this generation, I believe they'll eventually get their act together to make it a tough race for second place. (Yes, the Wii will win this round.) There are a number of unanswered questions for them in the next couple of years as well, but MS didn't make the most of the 360s lead time, lower price, and killer apps. And if that didn't amount to much, what can they bring to the table to eventually topple Sony?



Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.

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Lost tears of Kain on 04 November 2007
Steve 3.2 said:
I think a lot of it has to do with momentum, past performance, and consumer perception. This year should be the 360's biggest holiday season in it's lifespan. After this, sales should decline each year. The question is, will MS be able to buck that trend? It has some things going for it -- it's still more than the 'mass market price' of $200 and there are some heavy hitting games on the horizon. But the defining game of the console, Halo 3, didn't seem to move many units after launching. And there will be no Halo 4. So besides GTA IV, what other game does MS have to move units? And will MS be able to get it together to deliver the 360 at a mass market price that will ignite consumer demand in 2008?

While Sony has misfired more times than anyone wants to count this generation, I believe they'll eventually get their act together to make it a tough race for second place. (Yes, the Wii will win this round.) There are a number of unanswered questions for them in the next couple of years as well, but MS didn't make the most of the 360s lead time, lower price, and killer apps. And if that didn't amount to much, what can they bring to the table to eventually topple Sony?

Gears of war two comes to mind

YOu cant forget all the great games from last generation, Kotor 3, Fable etc they may not be halo, but they are definitley big.

Long as the gap keeps widing things are not changing, o and NG 2 is going to be decent size



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
Blackhawk FSI on 04 November 2007

alot of people are talking about attach ratios and zack & wiki, please, get on topic



xbox 360, ps2 are my consoles 

 end of generation predictions: wii 106 million Xbox 360 59 million PS3 57 million  

 

DarkNight_DS on 04 November 2007
mrstickball said:
A few things:

#1. We do have X360 software sales, Microosft has consistently stated and shown that the X360 in Europe has the highest attach rate ever for software, totally destroying your baseless claims of European countries/retailers not stocking X360 software. The X360 attach ratio for software is around 5.7-6.0 in Europe, and has been above 4.5 since last year. So if anything, European software leans in the favor of the X360. Sports games, like in the US, fail to chart for the Wii whereas they've done well in 06 and 07 for the X360 platform in most countries.

#2. XBLA will kill Wiiware, because it has a 2+ year headstart. There are 100+ games in dev for WiiWare? That's nice, but the X360 has just as many in development. The X360 has cornered the market in such software, and has had the backing of every major developer (sans SE) for the XBLA platform. Capcom, Konami, Ubisoft, as well as others already have released titles, and plan many, many more. That's ontop of the 50-odd exclusive, non-remakes out there.

#3. Carlos, if the Wii only has a 4.0 attach ratio, and 150m units sold, it'll be the lowest software-selling #1 console since the SNES. The Playstation 2 has sold OVER 1.3 billion software units. Therefore, it's a trickle-down effect: mediocre 3rd party sales in the West = no/few exclusives, which will continue to hurt the Wiis poor attach ratio. I understand the whole "oh it's moving decent software since there are so many hardware units", but again, the numbers have stagnated for 12 months. No console has done that, ever, except for handhelds. At some point, it's either going to change, or Nintendo might not get alot of happy 3rd party developers.

I'm not trying to be on the anti-Wii train, but I'm trying to be honest. Not everything is beyond perfect in Nintendoland. With the Wii getting alot of ports, and second-rate games, as well as multiports is hardly a sign of a PS2-like console leader. And everyone in the Wiicamp is saying that it's going to blow the PS2 out of the water: exactly how is it going to do that when a supposed uber-unique game that's supposed to be a million-seller, Zack & Wiki, bomb in both the US and Japan, going to send signals to developers to jump on with major efforts?

And having said that, it always makes me tend to believe that the race is going to be alot, alot closer than you 150m+ Wii sellers think.

 Wait a second... Zack and Wiki is a great game and all, but it was never expected to sell 1 million copies.  If the stores refuse to stock, you've got a problem and Capcom knew this going in.  Also the game would have been super cheap to make.  I've played quite a bit of it so far and it looks like at most Capcom spent 1 million bucks on it.  The game looks good and all but the levels are very small, there isn't a lot of artwork in the game and the music isn't mind blowing.  I'd guess the game takes less then a gig on the disk.  The game is also targeted at a market that's never seen huge sales.  It's very niche.  I still recommend playing the game and buying it to support Capcom but I'm not going to be delusional into thinking this game was going to be the next Mario game. 



Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.

goddog on 04 November 2007

For attach rates, I think the bigger problem for the wii is half of the attach rate is wii play, and sports, which you get with hardware...

the PS3 with the same attach rate is much more impressive with most people buying 4 .... or say 3 if you dillute down bundled software

the 360 is just now bundling so that much more impressive for it



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minecraft name: hansrotec

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mrstickball on 05 November 2007
Steve 3.2 said:
I think a lot of it has to do with momentum, past performance, and consumer perception. This year should be the 360's biggest holiday season in it's lifespan. After this, sales should decline each year. The question is, will MS be able to buck that trend? It has some things going for it -- it's still more than the 'mass market price' of $200 and there are some heavy hitting games on the horizon. But the defining game of the console, Halo 3, didn't seem to move many units after launching. And there will be no Halo 4. So besides GTA IV, what other game does MS have to move units? And will MS be able to get it together to deliver the 360 at a mass market price that will ignite consumer demand in 2008?

While Sony has misfired more times than anyone wants to count this generation, I believe they'll eventually get their act together to make it a tough race for second place. (Yes, the Wii will win this round.) There are a number of unanswered questions for them in the next couple of years as well, but MS didn't make the most of the 360s lead time, lower price, and killer apps. And if that didn't amount to much, what can they bring to the table to eventually topple Sony?

Although Microsoft is "using up" alot of their first and third party AAA titles this year, it seems to of had a major, major effect.

Take for instance, since Halo3 launched, Xbox 360 sales have been up, worldwide, more than 100% each week. That's very, very impressive. And even moreso considering the X360 is still well above the mass market price of $200, and lowest SKU is 35% above that price. By this time next year, the X360 will have a $200 pricetag for the Arcade, if not close for the Premium.

As for top-tier games for Holiday 2008:

Fable 2 (followup to 2.9m seller Fable 1)

Fallout 3 (Multi-Plat, but Oblivion will wind up with 2.5m on the X360 alone)

Cry-On (Mistwaker title)

Banjo Kazooie 3 (followup to huge N64 IP)

Dark Messiah of Might & Magic (possible late 08)

Dead or Alive 5 (most likely exclusive)

Dead or Alive Code: Chronus

Infinite Undiscovery (likely late 08 release)

Huxley

Magna Carta 2 (Korean RPG. PS2 title sold ~500k units)

Ninja Gaiden 2

Sacred 2 (possible Q3 or 4)

The Shadow of Aten

Alan Wake

Star Wars: Battlefront 3 (most likely exclusive. Last time I checked it was, also a Xbox 1m+ seller)

Tom Clancy's Endwar

Too Human (with all the delays, could it goto Holiday 08 ala Mass Effect?)

 

Among other games, these are all probable June or later releases. Microsoft doesn't quite have the uber-lineup of exclusives next year of AAA titles, but from the list, there are alot of AA titles, and you never know which ones could suprise, such as Alan Wake.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.