Because eventually X360 and PS3 will be equally or similarly priced, and then the PS3 is just the better deal - unless BlueRay is completely beaten by HDDVD that soon, which is very unlikely. As others have pointed out, PS3 is already doing just as well as X360 did in its first year though X360 had no competition and did not have PS3's steep launch price. So it is obvious that PS3 will eventually beat X360. I hate both Sony and MS btw, so this is a neutral POV.

Yes the PS3 is doing well for its price, but 360 is doing well for lack of Japan.

If 360 gets Japan (highly unlikely) it will come in second.

If PS3 plays its cards right (likely) it will come in second.

If both scenarios happen, this will be interesting.

Your attach ratios are off. Attach ratios are LTD, not for the year. The difference is that the Wii attach ratio has stagnated worldwide since launch, whereas the PS3 and X360 have not. The X360 started at 3.8, and is now at 6.8 in the US. The Wii, including Wii Sports, has stayed at 4.0 since launch, and up till now.

And the problem is, software wise, the Wii isn't outpacing the X360. The X360 had 23.5m units of software sold in the US last year. This year, for the Wii, it's SOLD under 15m units. Even adding in Japan, which is obviously Wii-centric, the Wii still hasn't outsold the X360's 2006 total in both territories. It will due to Japan, but the US is very questionable.

Not only this, the obvious fact that the 3rd party software on the X360 has vastly outpaced the Wii's 3rd party software. The X360, from launch to November, had 6 or 7, 1m+ sellers (and 1 2m+ seller) games. The Wii has had only 2. So is that ultra-good for the Wii? No. Despite awesome hardware, software is still lagging. What happens when the X360 is still outpacing the Wii's software sales 2-3 years from now in the US? Devs aren't going to drop AAA exclusives on the Wii until a AAA game does well (Madden 08 ring a bell?).

But at any rate, the reason the X360 will get 3rd is simple: The Wii obviously has the firepower to get alot of sales (65m or so), and the PS3, although getting slaughtered now, has the advantage of a decent Japan advantage (5m units+), and a slight advantage in Europe.

The most the X360 can sell, under the optimal of circumstances, is 60m units. Having said that, the PS3 easily has that number as a middle-road point, therefore makes the X360 get 3rd place.

However, the X360 getting 3rd shouldn't be too dissapointing. Is 50m units for 3rd place bad? The best 3rd place has done is 22m units. The X360, even at 3rd, should double that ammount. Is that so bad? No.

You have some pretty wild assumptions and non-sequiturs there. BTW, hating the two sides doesn't make you neutral.

 Red Steel, Raving Rabbids and now Resident Evil 4 will soon be over 1 million games sold (If you go by shipped then RE4 already passed that milestone).  What other 3rd party game deserved to sell more then a million?  Most 3rd party software has been crap.  Better 3rd party games are coming out, if they also sell poorly then there is an issue, but it seems most 3rd parties who have released games on the Wii have been happy with their sales.  Even games like Boogie stand a good chance at breaking even or making money.  Cosidering the production values, it's been good to them.

You are still basing your sales on a slow hardware growth console vs a fast growth console.  The game sales will catch up given time but will likely never reach the same attach ratio as the 360 during it's life but once again it doesn't need to.  All it needs to do is keep a consistant Software to Hardware sales ratio and sell a lot of hardware to get a lot of software in homes.

IMO, it looks like Nintendo may be prepping itself to fully dive into digital distribution in a huge way.  The Wiiware titles we've seen details on are really giving the XBLA games a run for their money.  Nintendo stated over 100 games by 3rd parties are in development for the service.  Rumors have been hinting at 30 Nintendo titles for the service over the next 2 years.  That's a lot of download content.  It'll become a lot harder to track Wii software sales once the service launches.  Do I think everyone will hook their Wii's up to download this content?  No... but I see the service doing quite well for itself.  3rd Parties will be able to take game play risks with little financial risk involved.  If they are smart they'll develop larger franchises using the service.  

The DS's first year software sales were also quite low, obviously it hasn't had a problem since then.  The 360 will continue to see great software sales and the Wii will continue pushing forward.  There are a lot of games coming out on each system that will ultimately increase attach rates.  At least the console race isn't going to be as Nintendo heavy as the portable space is.  Everyone will continue to have a piece of the console software pie. 

Is the Wii in trouble?  No

Yes it would, and MS wouldnt just stand by and let this happen

"Your attach ratios are off. Attach ratios are LTD, not for the year.
The difference is that the Wii attach ratio has stagnated worldwide since launch, whereas the PS3 and X360 have not. The X360 started at 3.8, and is now at 6.8 in the US. The Wii, including Wii Sports, has stayed at 4.0 since launch, and up till now."

And this is why attach ratios are pretty much Worthless, with the Wii on pace to sell over 150m+ worldwide at the end of its life, even with an Attach ratio of 4.0 it would sell 600m+ of software. The Xbox 360 with its current pace of doing 50m at most WW and an attach ratio of 6.0 would sell only 300m+ software.

You need to sell hardware if you want to sell games. At the latest Nintendo conference, they showed slideshows about how the Wii has sold more clearly more software than the xbox 360 in the same time period, obviously the Wii also sold much more hardware thus they have a lower attach rate. Despite that, the fact still remains: If you have great hardware sales, it is likely that you will have great software sales, despite what attach ratio says.


And the problem is, software wise, the Wii isn't outpacing the X360. The X360 had 23.5m units of software sold in the US last year. This year, for the Wii, it's SOLD under 15m units. Even adding in Japan, which is obviously Wii-centric, the Wii still hasn't outsold the X360's 2006 total in both territories. It will due to Japan, but the US is very questionable.

But you are ignoring Europe, and it is widely knowed that the xbox don't sell a lot of software there. Just a couple of weeks ago we saw a rumor about most EU contries stopping selling XBOX 360 software because, well, it just doesn't sells. Wii in the other hand is having a lot of quietly success there, with games like Tiger Woods, MySims, Red Steel, Brain training, etc etc etc

Unfortunaly, we don't have Euro software numbers on this site to make better comparisions, however i don't think anyone will argue against the Wii having much better success in europe than the xbox 360.



Not only this, the obvious fact that the 3rd party software on the X360 has vastly outpaced the Wii's 3rd party software. The X360, from launch to November, had 6 or 7, 1m+ sellers (and 1 2m+ seller) games. The Wii has had only 2. So is that ultra-good for the Wii? No. Despite awesome hardware, software is still lagging. What happens when the X360 is still outpacing the Wii's software sales 2-3 years from now in the US? Devs aren't going to drop AAA exclusives on the Wii until a AAA game does well (Madden 08 ring a bell?).


While Wii 1st party software has vastly outpaced xbox 360 1st party software. And those 1st party games are exclusive, unlike 360's 3rd party software. You can get the same games with more features AND a cheaper price in the computer, at least for 90% of the games you are talking about.

Madden 08 has been perhaps the most disappointing game sales wise for the Wii, while we have a hell of a lot of games that exceeded expectations. Still, at 200k i'm quite sure than that game returned profits, taking into consideration that the Wii version obviously wasn't EA focus.

Besides, million sellers is another poor way to measure how a console is doing in terms of software success. Sometimes the games you release aren't expected to be million sellers. Even Zack & Wiki is not for the Wii. Is carnival games a million seller ? Is trauma center one ? Is MySims (Wii only) one? No. Are the developers happy with the profits of those games ? Hell yes. Most wii 3rd party games weren't expected to be million sellers, and they are not, however they are doing their job: Making very good profits for their developers.

I don't think developers care that much about having a million seller game as they care about profits. Some games, even at 1million are just breaking even.... sure it looks good to say "wow, my console has 100 million sellers, we are great!" however you must take into consideration that some games are more expensive to develop than others.

In this case the Wii offers the cheapest platform, and the easiest path to reach the bottom line: Make profit.


But at any rate, the reason the X360 will get 3rd is simple: The Wii obviously has the firepower to get alot of sales (65m or so), and the PS3, although getting slaughtered now, has the advantage of a decent Japan advantage (5m units+), and a slight advantage in Europe.

That 65m+ prediction sounds good for early 09 for the Wii.

The most the X360 can sell, under the optimal of circumstances, is 60m units. Having said that, the PS3 easily has that number as a middle-road point, therefore makes the X360 get 3rd place.

However, the X360 getting 3rd shouldn't be too dissapointing. Is 50m units for 3rd place bad? The best 3rd place has done is 22m units. The X360, even at 3rd, should double that ammount. Is that so bad? No.

I think you are heavily overrating the power of the ps3. The market already took their desition, and most of it don't want one. "OMG but the ps3 will be 250$ on 3 years!" By that time the Wii will have a price point of about 100$ and every family in the world will be looking for one. It is going to have TV-like success.

Those are huge numbers for all 3 systems, and your being hugely optimistic about all 3 consoles (wii should have more 360 less, and ps3 60 million middle point???????)

Unless you think the ps3 is somehow going to sky rocket its hard to believe

i think that the PS3 will place second b/c it will do beter in Europe and Japan and in America where most of the "Hardcore" gamers are most might eventually buy both systems or atleast sell 2/3 what the xbox is selling it has a chance and more Casual gamers will buy the PS3 when its Price is low enough because of the brand name out of the two so thats my reasoning why i think the PS3 will place 2nd

 Only seems to care about handhelds nowadays.

 Seriously, if I were launching a console and had to pick one region to flop in, Japan would be it. And don't tell me about the importance of Japanese developers. They're just as happy selling games to other parts of the world as they are selling to the home crowd, and already making games accordingly.

When Korea and China become a big part of the console market, success in the Asian markets will probably become more important, but that still might not necessitate performing well in Japan. Even regional neighbours can have widely varying tastes. Look at Europe.