why do people think 360 will come in third?

[DarkNight_DS]

mrstickball said:

DarkNight_DS said:

dabaus513 said:
Ripper made an exellent point, the wii is selling hardware like crazy but also has lowest attach ratio for game sold, i believe that was the conclusion from most gaming websites. Honestly with the games the wii has been putting out i cant blame anyone not wanting to buy software. I think if third party games bomb on the wii then it will be considered a hell idk a fad? I hate to say that cause all the nintdrones will shit a brick but if software doesnt sell then that will be the case.

Honestly I want the playstation to be 2nd, if not 1st, extremly unlikely in both events but i want it to happen.

How many million sellers did the 360 have in it's first 10 months? The Wii has had 10... As many will point out, the system with the most hardware sold doesn't need the highest ratio to software as long as the attach rates are ok.

If the Wii sells 18 million pieces of hardware by the end of the year and has an attach ratio of 4. The Wii will have sold 72 million pieces of software.

If the 360 sells 14.5 million pieces of hardware by the end of the year and has an attach ratio of 6. The 360 will have sold 96 million pieces of software during a 2 year stretch.

Given the fact that the Wii will have only been out for a year and a month, the Wii's numbers look pretty incredible. As the gap in hardware grows, the total software sold will also grow. A lower attach rate will still allow you to sell more of your games to that system if the hardware outpaces the competition.

Another point that other's have mentioned before is cost to develop and market your games. Comparing Wii to 360 software sales wise is a bit hard given all the scenarios. In any case both systems have impressive software sales.

The PS2 had a pretty low attach rate during it's first year as well.

Your attach ratios are off. Attach ratios are LTD, not for the year. The difference is that the Wii attach ratio has stagnated worldwide since launch, whereas the PS3 and X360 have not. The X360 started at 3.8, and is now at 6.8 in the US. The Wii, including Wii Sports, has stayed at 4.0 since launch, and up till now.

And the problem is, software wise, the Wii isn't outpacing the X360. The X360 had 23.5m units of software sold in the US last year. This year, for the Wii, it's SOLD under 15m units. Even adding in Japan, which is obviously Wii-centric, the Wii still hasn't outsold the X360's 2006 total in both territories. It will due to Japan, but the US is very questionable.

Not only this, the obvious fact that the 3rd party software on the X360 has vastly outpaced the Wii's 3rd party software. The X360, from launch to November, had 6 or 7, 1m+ sellers (and 1 2m+ seller) games. The Wii has had only 2. So is that ultra-good for the Wii? No. Despite awesome hardware, software is still lagging. What happens when the X360 is still outpacing the Wii's software sales 2-3 years from now in the US? Devs aren't going to drop AAA exclusives on the Wii until a AAA game does well (Madden 08 ring a bell?).

 

But at any rate, the reason the X360 will get 3rd is simple: The Wii obviously has the firepower to get alot of sales (65m or so), and the PS3, although getting slaughtered now, has the advantage of a decent Japan advantage (5m units+), and a slight advantage in Europe.

The most the X360 can sell, under the optimal of circumstances, is 60m units. Having said that, the PS3 easily has that number as a middle-road point, therefore makes the X360 get 3rd place.

However, the X360 getting 3rd shouldn't be too dissapointing. Is 50m units for 3rd place bad? The best 3rd place has done is 22m units. The X360, even at 3rd, should double that ammount. Is that so bad? No.

 Red Steel, Raving Rabbids and now Resident Evil 4 will soon be over 1 million games sold (If you go by shipped then RE4 already passed that milestone).  What other 3rd party game deserved to sell more then a million?  Most 3rd party software has been crap.  Better 3rd party games are coming out, if they also sell poorly then there is an issue, but it seems most 3rd parties who have released games on the Wii have been happy with their sales.  Even games like Boogie stand a good chance at breaking even or making money.  Cosidering the production values, it's been good to them.

You are still basing your sales on a slow hardware growth console vs a fast growth console.  The game sales will catch up given time but will likely never reach the same attach ratio as the 360 during it's life but once again it doesn't need to.  All it needs to do is keep a consistant Software to Hardware sales ratio and sell a lot of hardware to get a lot of software in homes.

IMO, it looks like Nintendo may be prepping itself to fully dive into digital distribution in a huge way.  The Wiiware titles we've seen details on are really giving the XBLA games a run for their money.  Nintendo stated over 100 games by 3rd parties are in development for the service.  Rumors have been hinting at 30 Nintendo titles for the service over the next 2 years.  That's a lot of download content.  It'll become a lot harder to track Wii software sales once the service launches.  Do I think everyone will hook their Wii's up to download this content?  No... but I see the service doing quite well for itself.  3rd Parties will be able to take game play risks with little financial risk involved.  If they are smart they'll develop larger franchises using the service.  

The DS's first year software sales were also quite low, obviously it hasn't had a problem since then.  The 360 will continue to see great software sales and the Wii will continue pushing forward.  There are a lot of games coming out on each system that will ultimately increase attach rates.  At least the console race isn't going to be as Nintendo heavy as the portable space is.  Everyone will continue to have a piece of the console software pie. 

Is the Wii in trouble?  No