I think a lot of it has to do with momentum, past performance, and consumer perception. This year should be the 360's biggest holiday season in it's lifespan. After this, sales should decline each year. The question is, will MS be able to buck that trend? It has some things going for it -- it's still more than the 'mass market price' of $200 and there are some heavy hitting games on the horizon. But the defining game of the console, Halo 3, didn't seem to move many units after launching. And there will be no Halo 4. So besides GTA IV, what other game does MS have to move units? And will MS be able to get it together to deliver the 360 at a mass market price that will ignite consumer demand in 2008?
While Sony has misfired more times than anyone wants to count this generation, I believe they'll eventually get their act together to make it a tough race for second place. (Yes, the Wii will win this round.) There are a number of unanswered questions for them in the next couple of years as well, but MS didn't make the most of the 360s lead time, lower price, and killer apps. And if that didn't amount to much, what can they bring to the table to eventually topple Sony?
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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