why do people think 360 will come in third?

[DarkNight_DS]

mrstickball said:
A few things:

#1. We do have X360 software sales, Microosft has consistently stated and shown that the X360 in Europe has the highest attach rate ever for software, totally destroying your baseless claims of European countries/retailers not stocking X360 software. The X360 attach ratio for software is around 5.7-6.0 in Europe, and has been above 4.5 since last year. So if anything, European software leans in the favor of the X360. Sports games, like in the US, fail to chart for the Wii whereas they've done well in 06 and 07 for the X360 platform in most countries.

#2. XBLA will kill Wiiware, because it has a 2+ year headstart. There are 100+ games in dev for WiiWare? That's nice, but the X360 has just as many in development. The X360 has cornered the market in such software, and has had the backing of every major developer (sans SE) for the XBLA platform. Capcom, Konami, Ubisoft, as well as others already have released titles, and plan many, many more. That's ontop of the 50-odd exclusive, non-remakes out there.

#3. Carlos, if the Wii only has a 4.0 attach ratio, and 150m units sold, it'll be the lowest software-selling #1 console since the SNES. The Playstation 2 has sold OVER 1.3 billion software units. Therefore, it's a trickle-down effect: mediocre 3rd party sales in the West = no/few exclusives, which will continue to hurt the Wiis poor attach ratio. I understand the whole "oh it's moving decent software since there are so many hardware units", but again, the numbers have stagnated for 12 months. No console has done that, ever, except for handhelds. At some point, it's either going to change, or Nintendo might not get alot of happy 3rd party developers.

I'm not trying to be on the anti-Wii train, but I'm trying to be honest. Not everything is beyond perfect in Nintendoland. With the Wii getting alot of ports, and second-rate games, as well as multiports is hardly a sign of a PS2-like console leader. And everyone in the Wiicamp is saying that it's going to blow the PS2 out of the water: exactly how is it going to do that when a supposed uber-unique game that's supposed to be a million-seller, Zack & Wiki, bomb in both the US and Japan, going to send signals to developers to jump on with major efforts?

And having said that, it always makes me tend to believe that the race is going to be alot, alot closer than you 150m+ Wii sellers think.

 Wait a second... Zack and Wiki is a great game and all, but it was never expected to sell 1 million copies.  If the stores refuse to stock, you've got a problem and Capcom knew this going in.  Also the game would have been super cheap to make.  I've played quite a bit of it so far and it looks like at most Capcom spent 1 million bucks on it.  The game looks good and all but the levels are very small, there isn't a lot of artwork in the game and the music isn't mind blowing.  I'd guess the game takes less then a gig on the disk.  The game is also targeted at a market that's never seen huge sales.  It's very niche.  I still recommend playing the game and buying it to support Capcom but I'm not going to be delusional into thinking this game was going to be the next Mario game.