I expected 1.5 million before the budget release, and it's looking to be right in line with Famitsu's expectations. Ship near a million and have little if any shipment afterwards.

And I'm not saying it bombed. Just lower than I expected. Half of the PSP versions should not be a high expectation, especially so since it has a much higher budget.

Lastly, look at my sig. He expected it to do 3 million and we compromised on a bet.

Guys, Monster Hunter 3 is selling better than Monster Hunter Freedom, Monster Hunter Freedom 118k / 53k (668k LTD), the fist PSP game. This is the Second entry in the Series on the Wii and the first that is not a port and it is selling quite well. It takes time for an IP to develop a fanbase on another platform. Just look at the PSP for example. This game is by no means a bomb and will sell a million or more in Japan.

Hm, what was the PSP's userbase when Freedom was released?

There were 2.2 million PSPs in Japan whenever the first MH launched.

I expected 1.5 million before the budget release, and it's looking to be right in line with Famitsu's expectations. Ship near a million and have little if any shipment afterwards.

And I'm not saying it bombed. Just lower than I expected. Half of the PSP versions should not be a high expectation, especially so since it has a much higher budget.

Lastly, look at my sig. He expected it to do 3 million and we compromised on a bet.

Come on Ail, most games aren't that front loaded. Its only one or two series like Metal Gear or Final Fantasy that are. Even Dragon Quest IX didn't do 75-80% of its sales in two weeks. 2.96m in two weeks, ~3.53m through Aug 9, and its going to get to ~3.75m by the end of August, and it might leg out a couple hundred thousand more. But once it passes 3.75m, it did less than 75% of its total by week two. Monster Hunter G did 175k on Wii in two weeks and has climbed to 240k since and still sells ~1,000 or so per week at the moment, so it will get to ~250k.

65%-70% in two weeks is probably more realistic for big titles. So you should add roughly 50% of the week two total to MH3 - 721k * 1.4 to 721k * 1.5 for a realistic total. It may see better legs than MHG since the Wii base line has improved from April, but 1.0m-1.1m looks ok at the moment. No one in their right mind should have expected it to be bigger than the PSP titles, if you look back in the thread (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=77192), from the very first post you can see we had realistic expectations - 90k Wii, 500k MH3 week one, but the game has clearly outperformed the PS2 Monster Hunter games on a smaller hw base, so Capcom has to be fairly happy. The game will do a few hundred thousand in the west I'd wager based on the performance of the PSP Freedom title (the west is reversed - the Wii game should outperform the PSP Monster Hunter). By the end of next week, some retailers probably will run out of the initial shipment (it will be around 800k out of the ~1m initial shipment) so Capcom will be able to ship more units even though some retailers will have it in stock. Realistically, then can ship up to 1.25m in Japan it looks like, and maybe 350k in the west this fiscal year. So yeah, they probably can't do the 2m projected, but ~1.6m is possible yet.