Famitsu sales (8/3 - 8/9)

[Ail]

TheSource said:

Come on Ail, most games aren't that front loaded. Its only one or two series like Metal Gear or Final Fantasy that are. Even Dragon Quest IX didn't do 75-80% of its sales in two weeks. 2.96m in two weeks, ~3.53m through Aug 9, and its going to get to ~3.75m by the end of August, and it might leg out a couple hundred thousand more. But once it passes 3.75m, it did less than 75% of its total by week two. Monster Hunter G did 175k on Wii in two weeks and has climbed to 240k since and still sells ~1,000 or so per week at the moment, so it will get to ~250k.

65%-70% in two weeks is probably more realistic for big titles. So you should add roughly 50% of the week two total to MH3 - 721k * 1.4 to 721k * 1.5 for a realistic total. It may see better legs than MHG since the Wii base line has improved from April, but 1.0m-1.1m looks ok at the moment. No one in their right mind should have expected it to be bigger than the PSP titles, if you look back in the thread (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=77192), from the very first post you can see we had realistic expectations - 90k Wii, 500k MH3 week one, but the game has clearly outperformed the PS2 Monster Hunter games on a smaller hw base, so Capcom has to be fairly happy. The game will do a few hundred thousand in the west I'd wager based on the performance of the PSP Freedom title (the west is reversed - the Wii game should outperform the PSP Monster Hunter). By the end of next week, some retailers probably will run out of the initial shipment (it will be around 800k out of the ~1m initial shipment) so Capcom will be able to ship more units even though some retailers will have it in stock. Realistically, then can ship up to 1.25m in Japan it looks like, and maybe 350k in the west this fiscal year. So yeah, they probably can't do the 2m projected, but ~1.6m is possible yet.

I agree they will probably ship around 1.25 million units.

They might have to do the second shipment at a lower price but we have no clue what their expectation were for that so that is speculative.

I still think it won't be that easy to break 1 million, week 3 will give us a clearer picture on that but if week 3 is bellow 65k it will be hard....