You obviously don't understand Nintendo even though many people have already said this.

Nintendo's philosophy is this. You make hardware so that you can create games that are incapable of being made on any other hardware. I'll say it again, Nintendo makes the hardware for the software that they make, not the other way around. If Nintendo cannot control the hardware, they will leave the business. It is that simple. Nintendo will never go 3rd party, and they won't go out without a bang. According to analysts the Wii was destined to flop while the PS3 was destined to dominate. If you did a risk analysis, Sony was taking a small risk compared to the huge risk that Nintendo took. Obviously Nintendo's huge risk paid off, while Sony's safe bet fell through. So you can't say Nintendo won't take a risk, because they've proven they will.

As for no guarantee they'll make money on the next console, yes that is true, but Nintendo will never post losses as large as Sony or Microsoft. Nintendo isn't stupid, they sell their hardware at a profit. To my knowledge they only times they've sold their hardware at a loss was because the exchange rate changed and caused them to lose money. Not because they willing decided to sell the hardware at a loss of $200 per unit (estimated loss for Sony at the PS3 launch). So, while they could lose money, they'll never lose as much money just because they are selling hardware to support their business.

So, Nintendo getting out of the hardware business equals closing the doors forever, while Sony or Microsoft getting out of the hardware business may mean larger profits. Yet you still believe that Nintendo is the most likely to leave.

Also, if we go back to the flash issue. While online services may be cheaper, Nintendo has been wildly successful with the DS, so flash is obviously a workable medium. Prices are dropping, so while I don't think Nintendo will head back to flash, there really isn't any reason why they couldn't. Your statement about online is also false. I know plenty of people who have a console, but do not have it hooked up to the internet (nor could they really, oh and thanks for throwing a claim that is incredibly easy to counter.). Anywhere they can move hardware they can move software too. So online is still smaller any way you slice it. While online distribution may be easier to execute, you chop off a large portion of the market. Also, there have been plenty of online games yet they still sell more disc copies as proven by sales that have been reported. So again, obviously people want or need physical copies. The best method to pursue would be a combination of both until physical copies no longer make sense to produce. CDs are still around yet online distribution has been in existence for years. People want to own physical copies and getting rid of them would chop off a portion of the market that isn't easily capable of downloading a game.

Also, hopefully this thread will convince you that if you believe that Sony is 100% sure to make a next console, then it is quite obvious that Nintendo will to. We can close the thread and you can open another one that states Nintendo and Sony are the only company you are 100% sure will make a next gen console. Then we can argue about Microsoft which is actually a question mark for the same exact reasons that Sony is.

Solidpumar are you going to have to make me put an epic fail demotivator on this thread?  Cus I swear I'll do it I'm crazy. 

Excellent post, saved me a lot of typing for the same reasons.  I think Nintendo are the company guaranteed to release a next generation console at this time, it's then Sony and Microsoft tied for the next spot (maybe Sony slightly more favourite).

Making consoles that breed the world's most unreasonable reasoning.

Making amazing consoles for a world that's too stupid to appreciate them.

LOL, I'll drink to that..

Lets hope they've learned there lesson  XD

Were that they never had a business model that worked. Nintendo can't be cowtowed and Microsoft can't be outspent.

Sony gambled with the PS3. They priced themselves out of the market and hoped brand value and an unproven movie format would spell success. Their gamble failed, and failed big. Nintendo does not gamble that big. Nintendo does not create consoles that can't see profitibility three years after release. So even if Nintendo goes back to Gamecube sales, that console will still be profitable and will be worth staying in business for, since Nintendo's own games can still record many millions in sales on low selling hardware.

If you never believed Nintendo would drop out, then why type out such a long, drawn out argument about it? You didn't get facepalms because of your statements on Sony, it's because you threw a ridiculous Nintendo scenario into the mix that would never happen.

Look at how much the E rated games on Sony and Microsoft's consoels sell and then look at the Wii. You don't see the difference? You don't think it may be a result of a staggering difference in demographics between the HD consoles and the Wii? LBP had a massive ad campaign, got fantastic word of mouth, and was a frontrunner for GOTY everywhere. It sold on par with a mediocre Sonic game on the Wii.

On the PS3 there are three E rated titles in the top 10 for third parties, all of which are licensed sports titles and are near the bottom. On the 360, there is one E rated title in the top 10 and it's a licensed sports title, also at the bottom. I'm obviously not counting the holiday bundle titles on the 360, so don't ask about them. On the PS3, the top 6 third party titles are all rated M and 6/10 of the top 10 are M rated. On the 360, the top 4 third party titles are M rated out of 6/10 total in the top 10.

On the Wii, 8/10 of the top 10 third party titles are rated E. None of them are licensed sports titles. There are no M rated titles in the top 10. There are minigame collections, sports collections, an action title and a platformer rounding out the E rated titles. Similiar to how there is genre range on the M rated titles in the top 10 on the HD consoles, there is genre range for the E rated titles on the Wii.

The demographics are different. It's easy to see.

Also it's been proven already that there are statements made that if Nintendo stopped making consoles, the games do disappear. So you are wrong there.

My arguments can't be faulty since they oppose yours, and you've already admitted to not believing what you say is going to happen.

You really don't know about business. Profits are much more important than assets and very few actually care about amount of assets. Amount of assets is only important when you are losing money and have to sell some of your assets. Sony doesn't have much money in the bank so Sony's assets are factories, workers etc. If console department would only lose money or not benefit some other department within company, it would be closed down or sold, no matter how much assets company has.

Sometimes huge amount of assets are actually burden. For example car companies have huge assets but almost nobody wants to buy any of them so they just close down factories or sell them for very minimal amount.

Why wouldn't Nintendo make a new console?
Or Microsoft?

It's all money if you do it right.