I have seen for a long time some people here that really believe that Sony may not do a ps4. In my mind this is so absurd is almost laughable. In fact the only company I am 100% sure will make a next gen console is Sony.
I don't know if the people that say that are only doing nintendo and microsoft fanboy service of if they really believe something like that.
I will try to explain why, IN MY OPINION, this claim is a absurd:
1)Sony is a HARDWARE company, the biggest* high-end electronics company in the world. And console is hardware.
Biggest as in total assets, it has 125 billion is assets, way more than any software or hardware company in the world. (not talking about market value or profit, I am talking about size.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000_Assets_2.html
2)They already have cell developed and shrunk, which they will use on the next console. Was always their plan to use cell because they could "glue" 4+ cells together due to its kind of architecture. They will save millions on manufacturing because of that, since they already have factory's doing. They only used cell architecture because of that, even if was unusual to developers. Since by 2012 all engines and developers will be used with multi-core processor, they will be able harvest the effort and sacrifice they did this generation with the expensive cell.
They already were thinking on the Ps4 when they choose to invest on CELL. They wouldn't waste all that advantage they have for next gen.
3)Just look the effort on online, mmo, motion tech, 3D technology, home, psn they are doing.
The 3D effort they did alone in 2008E3 showed they are spending R&D to put games in 3D. They didn't showed movies in 3d. They showed motorstom and GT5 in 3d, something the ps3 wont do, so would likely be a effort for next generation.
The companies that really showed more 3D game effort until now is only Nvidia and Sony. And the 3D is a hardware support required technology.
4) They already one of the biggest blu-ray manufaturers, which undoubtly will be next gen disc standard together with digital distribution.
The irony is that the company that most people are certain will make a next gen, Nintendo, the most profitable 1st party this genration, is the most likely to drop out IMO in making home consoles (it will for sure make handhelds). I know many will call me crazy, but bear with me. I not saying it will drop out, just that in comparision to chances MS and sony to drop out, is the one with bigger chance IMO.
I will explain:
1)they have way bigger software R&D than hardware
2)They can't create hardware and Internet servers and service as powerful and technology than competitor
3)They would the most influential and profitable third parties publishers with so many mainstream franchises, that with the multiplataform status could make them just as profitable as they been with this generation withouth the inherit risk of being a 1st party.
4) They are small company, and the risk and investment the next generation will require will just be too big and not worth in the business sense.
Small as in less than 20 billion in assets. Even tho it growing a lot this generation.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000_Counrty_7.html
5)Deleted* I was mistaken about the meaning of blue ocean expressioon as some people point out in th thread*
Edit:
I dont think Nitendo will stop doind home consoles, because i believe all will likely continue.
My nintendo comments is that I wanted to share my opinion that nintendo could do very well as a 3rd party, making good profits with less risks and less investiment needed.
The thread became and flaming magnet and because of the way I put it, the message i wanted to share wans't very clear.
