You might be right. If Nintendo or Microsoft decides to launch a new console before Sony does, it won't be a next gen console because Sony is the only company who decides when the next gen begins.

"facepalm"

    The poker table metaphor does not hold weight. Nintedo doesnt have to go 'all in' to release a next gen console, it is very unlikely that they will release a machine with Pixar quality graphics.  Microsoft and especially Sony, are limited in that if and when they release a new console they need to beef up it's graphics to justify people upgrading, moreso since they've already anounced motin controls for their current systems.  Now if Next gen is going to be an increase in graphics than that means that games will become even more expensive to make and an even bigger risk so yes you would have to go 'all in', unless like Nintendo you have an upgrade that brings graphical quality up to 360/PS3 levels, which becuase of the expanded market largely do to the Blue Ocean strategy, is less risky than now will all but guarantee that even if the Wii 2 doesnt do to well (which is unlikely) it will at worst cause Nintendo to lose most of the Wii money.

and cartriges could very well be the next format for Nintendo games.

For all your talking, you've still yet to explain why Nintendo would become a third party publisher as opposed to a first party publisher/hardware maker. Nintendo makes consoles they see profit on rather fast. There's no reason to think that will change. So you're saying the following is what they might do compared to what they do now:

1. They make money off a console, accessories, a downloadable games service on said console, and massive game sales that they see every cent of.

or your scenario:

2. No hardware profits, no accessory profits, no Virtual Console/WiiWare profits, and a smaller cut of their game sales because they're now paying other console makers fees to put their games on their systems.

Other inconsistencies with your argument:

a. There's no guarantee Nintendo games will be able to sell as well without Nintendo also driving the console behind them.

b. There's no guarantee Sony or Microsoft's next consoles will fall in line with Nintendo's continued visions, which may cripple their innovation in making software. In fact, seeing as how both console makers concetrate heavily on M rated games and lots of online multiplayer, it's almost a guarantee Nintendo will not fit in.

c. There's no guarantee Sony or Microsoft's next consoles will be able to capture the expanded audience Nintendo has acquired with the Wii and DS. I see that audience just going back to having other hobbies if MS and Sony create consoles similiar to their current ones. It can very easily shrink the game buying community for the first generation ever.

d. You've also failed to explain why Nintendo would drop consoles and not handhelds. Both follow the same strategy. If one goes, why not the other?

e. Blue Ocean Strategy is not any major surprising shift a company can do, like just saying "Boo! HAHA! Surprised you!". It's acquiring a market not being catered to currently. Nintendo entering a third party publishing market infested with hundreds of other publishers that are already busy trying to capture that Nintendo magic is entering the red ocean.

Cartriges again..... *faceplam* again?

I really should just ignore post like yours.

Sony and microsoft can just stay with their current consoles if nintendo makes a console just as powerfull.

Microsoft and Sony is already with better techonology than nintendo with natal and ps3 wand in motion technology.

Expanded market? the wii has a market share, the wii 2 market share is 0% as of now. Why would buy a nintendo console if Sony and MS motion tech will be better than the nintendo motion technology and even be more powerfull.

 And the wii2 would be more expensive than the 360/natal and ps3 when the time comes which already will have motion control.

My god man. You really don't understand Nintendo's success at all. No wonder you think the way you do. Next thing you'll say is if the PSP adds a touch screen and a second screen it would start outselling the DS. If you really think keeping up with the Jones' is what will spell success for Sony and Microsoft and spell doom for Nintendo, you frankly have not been paying attention to the last five years.

There is no garantee their next console will make money. Ps2 made money, but the ps3 didn't

I did NOT sayed nintendo will drop OUT.

I SAID NO ONE WILL DROP OUT, in the post you quoted for gods sake.

MS, SONY, Nintedo will likely release another console. I have been saying that for the whole thread.

I said SONY CHANCE OF DROPING OUT IS LESS THAN NINTENDO. Which is true regardless of how bigger nintendo chance are, simply because I beliave there is 0% chance sony will drop out, for similar reason you think nintendo wont.

But I dont think any will drop out of hardware sales. NONE.

 At least for next gen.... in next next gen things might change.

---------------

M rated games... what? every console has rated E games, VIVA PINATA, LBP, free realms, singtar (just some 1st party i mentioned) And if sony and ms really only catter to M (which is a lie), just mean that NIntendo will have less competiton in publishing games. They could make people buy ps4 to play mario and not god of war4, you dont need to play evry game the console has.

Shrink gaming community because the product doesnt have Nintendo stamp on it? biased much? Nintendo games wouldnt disappear.

You arguments are so faulty and you have the guts to say mine is incosistent?

Nintendo sucess on the DS wasnt because of hardware was because of the games they have and price. People didnt bought the DS because of touch screen or second screen on the first place, they bought because of pokemon, GBA advanced compatibility and because of sony mistakes.

You are the one that doesnt understand the nintendo sucess.

Dont patronize me kid.

It was a joke. Hence the

''Double Facepalm''

1. If Sony and Microsoft stay with their current consoles than that automaticly proves what you said at the begging of this thread wrong.  You said that their was a 100% chance Sony would  come out with a next gen console.  In this scenario which is far more likely than Nintendo dropping out of the console market, than according to you Sony probably won't make a new console. I strongly implied, and should have explicetly said that under these conditions it wouldnt have made much sense for Sony to release a new console. Same with Microsoft, although they have more of a reason to release a next gen system due to the limited storage space of the their game disks and the playstation 3's graphical superiority.

  The scenario I have put forth has made it so that a nextgen PS3/360 is less likely and you even said that Sony and Microsoft wouldnt have much reason to release a new console.

2. Yes the video game market has expanded.  From the so called casuals who have been introduced through the Wii, gaming becoming less of a niche culture which even before the Wii has been more and more accepted by society, and even population growth.  People would buy a new nintendo console becuase it would cost the same as the others. If a console that has all the capabilities of a PS3 and a wii is released 3 or 4 years from now it wouldn't be outrageslly expensive.  2nd it would have third party support behind it.  THe Wii has had terrible 3rd party support but it still sells, it sells when there isnt much out for it but when big games come out it picks up drasticlly.  3rd brand loyalty.  Many of the 50 million and rising who have bought the Wii will be more inclined to get it's succesor when they upgrade to a new system rather than the PS360. 4th market history Atari dominated home video games first whith Pong than with the 2600, than Nintendo was the king for the 8 and 16 bit eras, after that it was Sony with the PSX and PS2, than the Wii and if history has shown us anything the Wii 2. 5th Nintendo.  Nintendo can sell a few million systems with only its software which is among the best in the world if not the best. In fact theyve sold 50 million Wii's using largely this method.

3. If as I am saying the Wii 2 is the Wii with PS360 level graphics although not neccessarliy the same ?archeticture? would that be the right word? It would cost about the same as those 2.