Sony is the only company I am 100% sure will make a next gen console

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You obviously don't understand Nintendo even though many people have already said this.

Nintendo's philosophy is this. You make hardware so that you can create games that are incapable of being made on any other hardware. I'll say it again, Nintendo makes the hardware for the software that they make, not the other way around. If Nintendo cannot control the hardware, they will leave the business. It is that simple. Nintendo will never go 3rd party, and they won't go out without a bang. According to analysts the Wii was destined to flop while the PS3 was destined to dominate. If you did a risk analysis, Sony was taking a small risk compared to the huge risk that Nintendo took. Obviously Nintendo's huge risk paid off, while Sony's safe bet fell through. So you can't say Nintendo won't take a risk, because they've proven they will.

As for no guarantee they'll make money on the next console, yes that is true, but Nintendo will never post losses as large as Sony or Microsoft. Nintendo isn't stupid, they sell their hardware at a profit. To my knowledge they only times they've sold their hardware at a loss was because the exchange rate changed and caused them to lose money. Not because they willing decided to sell the hardware at a loss of $200 per unit (estimated loss for Sony at the PS3 launch). So, while they could lose money, they'll never lose as much money just because they are selling hardware to support their business.

So, Nintendo getting out of the hardware business equals closing the doors forever, while Sony or Microsoft getting out of the hardware business may mean larger profits. Yet you still believe that Nintendo is the most likely to leave.

Also, if we go back to the flash issue. While online services may be cheaper, Nintendo has been wildly successful with the DS, so flash is obviously a workable medium. Prices are dropping, so while I don't think Nintendo will head back to flash, there really isn't any reason why they couldn't. Your statement about online is also false. I know plenty of people who have a console, but do not have it hooked up to the internet (nor could they really, oh and thanks for throwing a claim that is incredibly easy to counter.). Anywhere they can move hardware they can move software too. So online is still smaller any way you slice it. While online distribution may be easier to execute, you chop off a large portion of the market. Also, there have been plenty of online games yet they still sell more disc copies as proven by sales that have been reported. So again, obviously people want or need physical copies. The best method to pursue would be a combination of both until physical copies no longer make sense to produce. CDs are still around yet online distribution has been in existence for years. People want to own physical copies and getting rid of them would chop off a portion of the market that isn't easily capable of downloading a game.

Also, hopefully this thread will convince you that if you believe that Sony is 100% sure to make a next console, then it is quite obvious that Nintendo will to. We can close the thread and you can open another one that states Nintendo and Sony are the only company you are 100% sure will make a next gen console. Then we can argue about Microsoft which is actually a question mark for the same exact reasons that Sony is.