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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Xbox 360 will not fall below 200k any time 2009...

hunter_alien on 21 December 2008

This is just so easy... common...



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Spectrumglr on 21 December 2008

we can easily assume that x360 for the first half of the year will perform better than the ps3 last year but still 200k+ any given week from now till the end of october 2009 is almost impossibile....you could win this kind of bet though: "x360 in 2009 will sell at least 200k per week in 45 weeks out of 52"



2008 year end sales (made in January 2008):

44.2 M 27.1 M 20.8 M

shams on 21 December 2008

No way. The 360 will easily fall below 200k/week, in the months following on from the Xmas sales burst. It was doing around 130k/week in this period last year - and I don't believe sales will be up 50% YOY for the same period.



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Dgc1808 on 21 December 2008

Doubt it will happen, but good luck Squilliam.



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theword on 21 December 2008

200k/wk is entirely possible if:
1) MS and third parties come out and announce a dozen more AAA exclusives early 2009, new exclusives not the ones we have heard already.
2) MS continues to aggressively advertise 
3) Rare or somebody put out one or two major family hits.  



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theword on 21 December 2008

200k/wk is entirely possible if:
1) MS and third parties come out and announce a dozen more AAA exclusives early 2009, new exclusives not the ones we have heard already.
2) MS continues to aggressively advertise 
3) Rare or somebody put out one or two major family hits.  

Good luck to all of you betting on this.



Cueil on 21 December 2008

I think it'll do 200k/wk... we haven't even begun to see the 200 dollar Arcade system touch it's saturation point. Barring any post holiday supply problems I think Microsoft will easily do 200k on average through Oct.



 
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amirnetz on 21 December 2008

It can do 200K/wk average for sure. But Squilliam is saying 200K/wk MINIMUM. This mean the average has to be significantly higher than 200K so that 200K will become the minimum. 250K/wk for Jan-Oct may be the right weekly average for a 200K minimum week.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Carl on 21 December 2008

im confused...
is this averages or are you betting on it simply not falling below 200k/wk?



                            

c0rd on 21 December 2008
Squilliam said:
amirnetz said:
Hey Squilliam - I will take you on a $200 bet.

If you are right then the 360 will be selling over 9M by EO october, which will mean a over 14M for the year. As much as I would love this to be true, I think this is a bit too much.

How do you go about to register the bet?

Vgchartz dollars? If it was real money I would have to peg the odds at somewhere between 10-15:1 since im betting against the recession and precedent. Im sure someones just waiting to tell me that no 2nd place console has peaked in its 4th year or something like that. Btw I did predict that the Xbox 360 would see 14,000,000 in the official thread actually, didn't realize that it would fit so well with this prediction.

Eh, I'm pretty sure I mentioned before Sega's Mega Drive (Genesis) was able to pull it off. It's understandable though, as both the SNES and Sonic arrived during/at the end of its second year after launch.

Anyway, Gluck on the prediction. I don't think you can even make it past February, though