MS for the most part made sure that the PS3 would one day pass it when it refused to drop the price by $100 earlier this year, when it chose to ignore the 360's hardware defects, and when it failed to cover more genres other than shooters, racing/driving sims, and sports.

The 360 does decently in N. America, but it does poorly in Europe and downright horribly in Japan. The fact that the PS3 is still outselling it in those regions despite the price difference and less software should ring a bell. The PS3 appears to have the bigger and more diverse lineup in 2008. The 360 has some anticipated titles coming, but it's still a pretty one-dimensional showing. There still isn't a prominent platformer, JRPG, offstyle racer, or action/adventure game. The software of the 360 exclusively targets older american males, which is why it's only managed to do well in NA. The 360's hardware sales have actually decreased month over month throughout the year despite more software. They even decreased the month that Forza 2 was released.

The PS3 will probably be at $300 by next Christmas, and while the 360 could be at $199, it still won't matter because they'll both be at mass market price point(the $299 PS1 and PS2 outsold the $199 N64 and Gamecube) and the 360 doesn't seem to have anything to answer FFXIII and GT5.

That being said, 2008 is a bit too early. I'd say the PS3 passes it some time in 2009.

Fixed! =)

Don't be so sure that Japan will allow the PS3 to win Japan.  They're struggling there. Not as much as the 360 is, but they are definitely struggling and I don't see this market making up for MS's dominance over the PS3 in America. Japan is th smallest of the big three markets by far.

I don't think the PS3 will ever catch up with the 360. The 360 is seeing more software sales, has more exclusives, and will continue to see the most exclusives due to seeing more software sales. It's the cycle of life (or death) for a console. 

Ok.

Worst case is PS3 does what 7/8 million in Japan after 5/6 years ?

You think the few 3rd party exclusives 360 can get will make up for Sonys own development capability ?

The cost of a port is less then what the profits they will get from a PS3 version.

If Sony's still making PS3s by the time XB360 is off the market, it might happen someday. Otherwise, no.

There's just too many "ifs" that have to happen. Games A, B, C and D for the PS3 have to increase sales a lot while games E, F, G and H for the XB360 won't increase sales a bit. And of course PS3 will see large frequent price cuts and the XB360 won't...it's a long list.

1) Worst case in Japan is probably around 4 Million. Gamecube barely did any better than that.

2) Yes I think that third parties MS gets can make up for Sony's in house development. Sony basically has one huge huge first party title (Gran Turismo) and after that every major game is third party. If Nintendo couldn't carry themselves over Microsoft based on the strongest first party company in the world (don't even think Sony's first party development will see anywhere near the success of Nintendo) then I don't see how Sony could.

3) But there are plenty of other reasons for making a title exclusive to a console. It's not just "cost to port > sales from console = port". There are always deals for exclusivity, reduction in royalties, etc etc. Some games will be multiplatform but just like last generation, a very large number of games will not be. Once again, I point you to the Gamecube as an example. Porting from PS2 to Gamecube is cheap too, but the GC still didn't see a lot of games.

Your whole theory is based on the GC comapro, PS3 is not the GC and 360 sure as hell is NOT the PS2 nor will it ever be!

Your thinking is quite flawed.

 As alwais on this forum the CrazzyMan is more sane than most other people, yes I too think the PS3 will do some catching up in 08 but with the soon to be fixed 360 MS will increase its lead this hollyday season so it will take lots of time for the PS3 to catch it, 

the last statement is most important IMO, we have had this discussion before and I don´t remember the numbers but consoles sell most when they reach the 199$-249$ price point, since MS will hit this point very soon (maybe even this year) Sony will need to pull some huge bunnies out of their hat to catch up soon

my prediction is that if the PS3 catches the 360 it will be very close to the end of this generation, if Sony really wants to pull of their 10 year raighn of PS3 terror, it will only hurt them in the long run since the Wii2 and the XBox720 will already be established in the superfunkyübergeneration (thats the official title for it).

How do you see that happening.

Japan is a good +1 mill for PS3 from xma sales.

Europe, even with a superior lineup and price the 360 is failing to out sales the PS3, what happens when PS3 gets a Euro price cut and the software finally hits ?

Will the 360 sale soooo great in USA that they can not only make up but gain extra lead ?

I'm honestly not sure at all which of the HD consoles will take second place yet. I'd say it's about 50-50 at this point due to a the general similarity between the two. I'd say that's a lot better than how Microsoft thought they'd be doing with their second console. Go 3-5 years into the past and say people are now seriously debating if the next Xbox will beat the next Playstation. They'll probably lock you away. =P

Currently the worst case scenario for both is sales stagnating, 3rd party support abandoning ship, and ending up with a user base of 20-30M. The original Xbox survived in this range due to the vast majority of their consoles being in the US and thus having substantial American developer support, while the Gamecube survived with Nintendo's own first party games. The Xbox 360 would probably be the same as the original in this respect, but the PS3 would be in serious trouble due to being heavily dependent on 3rd party and the unhealthy business model that relies on selling at a less initially, then achieving the highest market share and making all the lost money back later.

I'm fairly certain that one of the big boys is not going to beat 30M units sold. Not enough of a market for two obscenely expensives consoles, and developers are goign to abandon the other once the winner (of the second place) is clear.

On the other hand, both still have a good shot at 50-70M. Both are having their first price drop, and both have some very nice games coming.

Oh snap, I gotta run in a few minutes and leave this unfinished. Anyways, I believe one of the HD consoles will clearly take the momentum during the coming holiday period, and after that it'll be damn near impossible to turn things around. I expect most people will agree with me on this.

I think it will take anything from 12-18 months from now before the PS3 catches the 360, MS is not very hot in Europe either I'm afraid.

PS: I liked the Wii and was stunned by the concept initially, but it kinda lost it's sheen somehow. Then again, it's not built to have a long lasting appeal (3-5 years tops). Conclusion is; I do think the Wii will lose momentum, and I can't understand why many people don't? Is it that incredible even though it's doing great now?