So the many reasons its not selling great will magicly disseapear for xmas ?

It will sooner or later ,we are seeing right now how being 500 in NA and still 600 in Europe and the rest of the world (less in Japan but comparatively the same in respect with the 360 and Wii price there ) it can still outsell seriously the 360 .When the price drops come in Europe and Japan people will rush to buy it ,360 can lower its price all it want in the rest of the world it will still sell poorly .So with 3 regions pushing against just one ,even if the 360 could keep the PS3 at bay (somewhat remains to be seen )in the US  it would ultimately fail in the worlwide race .

If the new consoles from MS and/or Nintendo are cheaper than PS3, it will get really interesting. Nintendo for sure won't release a console over $250 and I don't see PS3 hitting $250 earlier than 2011.

Yes, thats what X-mas is all about.

Sure I might be wrong, I don´t mind having a side dish of crow with my main course of victory pie ;)

It´s just the normal laws of console sales don´t apply to Christmas, people will do crazy stuff. 

Bod makes some good points. Also what happens if the 360 garners enough attention from developers that they start to see really good Japanese games. If Namco or SE gives 360 some good games for Japan that could give the 360 a big enough boost to totally disrupt anything the PS3 is doing over there. It's bad enough the Wii has trashed all their plans of dominating Japan.

I see the PS3 eventually catching up with the 360, part of this is simply because of how the 360 sales are slowing down so badly.
Ultimately, I think it depends on the 360, if it can keep up its sales, it will stay ahead of the PS3 simply because they're selling at almost exactly the same place, otherwise the PS3 will manage to garner a lot more support once stuff like Little Big Planet comes out.
I still feel Little Big Planet will pretty much be the largest determining factor of whether the PS3 will fail or not. possibly even more so than the Bluray/HDDVD battle. If Little Big Planet gets good reviews, it'll be a whimsical and fun game that can actually attract the casual market the share that Microsoft is having so much trouble getting a hold on.

A little math for people:

PS3: 4.11 mil in 38 weeks, avg 108,158 sold per week
360: 10.32 mil in 89 weeks, avg 115,955 sold per week

The 360 has a lead of approx. 6.21 mil consoles, with an avg lead per week of 7,797.

If we assume the 360 continues to sell at the rate they are, the increase in sales the PS3 would need, and keep consistent, in order to cross them by a certain date is:

January 1, 2008: (21 weeks) 280.6% increase (near quadruple)
April 1, 2008: (34 weeks) 176.1% increase (near triple)
July 1, 2008: (47 weeks) 129.4% increase
October 1, 2008: (60 weeks) 102.9% increase (more than double)
January 1, 2009: (73 weeks) 85.9% increase
April 1, 2009: (86 weeks) 74.0% increase
July 1, 2009: (98 weeks) 65.8% increase
October 1, 2009: (112 weeks) 58.5% increase
January 1, 2010: (124 weeks) 53.5% increase

Even with a 50% sustained increase, worldwide, of the PS3's current sales, even if the 360 sells at its current rate and NEVER sees a sales increase, it would take until sometime in 2010 for the PS3 to catch up.

It's awfully early to say, but I'd say the 360's trends have been negative whereas the PS3's trends have been positive (albeit on a tiny scale). The 360 should be strengthening its sales right now and should have had increased sales this year compared to last. It hasn't. Can anyone here imagine the PS3 selling slower next year from Jan-July than it sold this year?  The PS3 selling 1.5x as many units during that period next year and 2x or 2.5x as many during that period in 2009 would not surprise me.

The PS3 *will* pick up momentum -- we just don't know exactly when. The 360 is far less clear.

MS just did a price drop, so we can reasonably expect no further price drops for a while. Their price drop was very small after 7 months of pathetic sales, suggesting that MS is so preoccupied on having a profitable fiscal '08 that it will give up the war to win a small and irrelevant battle. For a company joining additional markets for its own long-term health, Microsoft is remarkably short-sighted. They've done so many short sighted things this generation (ex: launching poorly tested hardware, stuffing the channel in the '06 holiday, addressing the hardware issues poorly, etc) that one has to wonder what reasoning they apply to the decisions they make.

MS makes many of its moves to affect the perception of its investors. Launching early, stuffing the channel, and denying hardware failures until they could no longer deny them were all for the benefit of investor confidence in the short term, but all have or will ultimately damage investor confidence.

MS is like that rich kid used to being given things on a silver platter and doesn't know how to deal with situations when things don't just go his way.

Um... Why would a console that's been out over a year and still at the same price as release, do better now than when it's brand new? At the full price, consoles do their best the first year out, give or take a few months to include the 2nd holiday season which should be its first having no supply constrains. The PS3 was freaking being outsold by the GBA for several months straight in the US without any type of supply deficiency. That's simply ridiculous.
It took a "pricecut" to move sales up to a reasonable level, yet they still continue to level off to a subpar sale rate. Once the 60gb model is completely gone from inventory, is the 80gb really going to be able to sustain high sale rates at the original $600 price? It's a fact that most people are not willing to spend $600 on a console or rush into the next multimedia format because it's an all in one deal (see the mass market thread). There are simply not that many early adopters (and even fanboys) willing to jump in at that price. MS has attempted to sell their console as long as possible at the full price rate. And they did pretty well at that initial price. Sony had no choice but to make a pricecut early to get sales moving again.
A complete reversal of fortune has never happened in a console race. Japan is supposed to be the saving grace but all that happens is sales are high for a week or two around a big game and then immediately drop off. Sony needs a GT game right now because MGS is not going to change this sales trend in Japan and all other games are questionable.

PS3 sales will never catch up to 360 unless blue ray is the new dvd and everyone buys hd tvs for it.
I really don't see that happening.