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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS3 eventually pass 360?

WiteoutKing said:
A little math for people:

PS3: 4.11 mil in 38 weeks, avg 108,158 sold per week
360: 10.32 mil in 89 weeks, avg 115,955 sold per week

The 360 has a lead of approx. 6.21 mil consoles, with an avg lead per week of 7,797.

If we assume the 360 continues to sell at the rate they are, the increase in sales the PS3 would need, and keep consistent, in order to cross them by a certain date is:

January 1, 2008: (21 weeks) 280.6% increase (near quadruple)
April 1, 2008: (34 weeks) 176.1% increase (near triple)
July 1, 2008: (47 weeks) 129.4% increase
October 1, 2008: (60 weeks) 102.9% increase (more than double)
January 1, 2009: (73 weeks) 85.9% increase
April 1, 2009: (86 weeks) 74.0% increase
July 1, 2009: (98 weeks) 65.8% increase
October 1, 2009: (112 weeks) 58.5% increase
January 1, 2010: (124 weeks) 53.5% increase

Even with a 50% sustained increase, worldwide, of the PS3's current sales, even if the 360 sells at its current rate and NEVER sees a sales increase, it would take until sometime in 2010 for the PS3 to catch up.

Wow ,you sure are BAD at mathematics arent you ?

Look ,the PS3 is already beating the 360 worlwide with a small price drop ONLY in NA and some packs in Europe.So even at the current rate and without changes in both it would one day pass the 360  .Once the PS3 lowers its price in Japan and Europe it will double its sales there so it will sell like 40K weekly in Japan and 75K in Europe .Even if it was lower ,say 30K in Japan and 65K in Europe ,that would still put the PS3 at some 125-130K weekly worldwide for some 50-60K units for the 360 .Each month the ww difference would be drained some quarter million and that without having in count the special holidays season or the big game releases as FF or MGSIV .



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I'm majoring in mathematics and game development.

Your claims have nothing to do with the math of my post. I'm using the average week sales of each console, and assuming the 360 does not change in sales, that is how much the PS3 would need to increase their weekly sales to catch up.

In fact, the post that fails at math is your own. You assume that a price cut will double sales in Europe and Japan. I am less confident that Japan will jump on board at this point, it's been shown they adopt one console heavily and little of any competitors.

On top of this, the 360 just had its own price cut, so we will see what effect that has on its sales.

And even if the WW difference is 250k per month, that STILL would take 25 months to make up the 6.21 million difference. Thus, thank you for proving my point for me.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Your sales rate post was excellent Witeout King. I really don't have much to add except for the Japanese price cut nonsense. The PS3 is available for $400 in Japan and its sales are still the poorest in that region. Price is the PS3's biggest problem in Europe and North America. Games are the PS3's biggest price in Japan. I mean the 360 has more JRPGs than the PS3 and that looks like it will continue to be the case for the forseeable future.



El Duderino said:
Hus said:
El Duderino said:

^^perhaps, but I still see the majority of X-mas sales beeing presents and there the price is most important, people buying right now buy as an investment for themselfs, also I don´t get who everybody says MS has such a bad brand name in europe, there are many reasons the 360 isn´t selling great here but I don´t see a bad name as beeing a major factor, all the people I know who buy electronics are very rational about their decision, besides McDonalds has a very bad brand name here, do we stop eating there ??? No we dont.

EDIT: great now my arrows point nowhere, craptastic


So the many reasons its not selling great will magicly disseapear for xmas ?

 


Yes, thats what X-mas is all about.

Sure I might be wrong, I don´t mind having a side dish of crow with my main course of victory pie ;)

It´s just the normal laws of console sales don´t apply to Christmas, people will do crazy stuff.


 Xmas craze or not half of europe does not care about the 360, the other half is pissed of with it scratching their disks and RRoD.  Ps3 has the Sony and Playstation brand name behind it, 360 lacks that. 



I wonder how much longer sony is going to string the ps3 along?



Send me a message if you want to be Wii friends.

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@Witeout King: the PS3 doen´t need your so called "math", math doesn´t work with a 4D console....JK

@Hus, you could be right but untill we europeans stop beeing pissed of because of the price and the launch delay and the emotion engine I don´t see it taking off eather, the Playstation 2 name is strong but its not rubbing of on the PS3 yet

I really do think the PS3 can catch (and take down) the 360 because of japan and the strong brandname, it will just take longer than Sony and PS3 fans would like... there will be no domination (overrated anyway) for the PS brand this time around, 3rd parties can´t cancentrate on eather the PS3 or the 360 and make a maximum profit, thats the main reason IMO



 

 

 

People need to avoid narrowing everything down to after the PS3 price cut. Of course PS3 is selling better since then...it had a price cut! Guess what? 360 will also sell better after it has a price cut (this week). It may not be as big as the PS3 price cut, but it will have an effect.

Look at the big picture: 360 was outselling PS3 before the price cut. 360 will always be cheaper than PS3. 360 currently features a better game lineup than PS3. 360 has a big head start in terms of existing userbase. The only bad thing for 360 in the big picture is that sales have never been outstanding. Still, in the big picture, 360 outsells PS3, and I think that trend will begin again starting with this week's price cut.

Can PS3 turn around eventually? Yes, but I think it's doubtful - the price is always going to be a problem, and third-party momentum has clearly shifted away from Sony. Sudden Blu-ray adoption is Sony's best bet for beating 360 and only bet for beating Wii this generation as far as I'm concerned.



El Duderino said:

 

@Hus, you could be right but untill we europeans stop beeing pissed of because of the price and the launch delay and the emotion engine I don´t see it taking off eather, the Playstation 2 name is strong but its not rubbing of on the PS3 yet

I really do think the PS3 can catch (and take down) the 360 because of japan and the strong brandname, it will just take longer than Sony and PS3 fans would like... there will be no domination (overrated anyway) for the PS brand this time around, 3rd parties can´t cancentrate on eather the PS3 or the 360 and make a maximum profit, thats the main reason IMO


Do you look at the sky and tell people its green ?

PS3 is outselling the 360 in almost every european market, PS3 lacks must have software and it is twice the 360 price in some areas.  If its not strong brand name selling it then what the hell is, seriously ? 

 

  



The PS3 will surpass the 360 at the end of 2008 in my opinion. The PS3 will continue to cut into the 360's lead throughout the rest of this year slowly. However, come early 2009, and some of the hot new anticipated games that are coming out, sales will take off. The PS3 has done very well for a console with only a handful of good games out, and it will just get better.



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

El Duderino said:

@Witeout King: the PS3 doen´t need your so called "math", math doesn´t work with a 4D console....JK

! It's genius!  The 4th dimension is "mathlessness"!  It makes so much sense now... if you don't need math, then numbers mean nothing, thus sales and money mean nothing...  It's all so clear to me now. :P



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007