Will PS3 eventually pass 360?

[ceres]

TheBigFatJ said:

It's awfully early to say, but I'd say the 360's trends have been negative whereas the PS3's trends have been positive (albeit on a tiny scale). The 360 should be strengthening its sales right now and should have had increased sales this year compared to last. It hasn't. Can anyone here imagine the PS3 selling slower next year from Jan-July than it sold this year?  The PS3 selling 1.5x as many units during that period next year and 2x or 2.5x as many during that period in 2009 would not surprise me.

Um... Why would a console that's been out over a year and still at the same price as release, do better now than when it's brand new? At the full price, consoles do their best the first year out, give or take a few months to include the 2nd holiday season which should be its first having no supply constrains. The PS3 was freaking being outsold by the GBA for several months straight in the US without any type of supply deficiency. That's simply ridiculous.
It took a "pricecut" to move sales up to a reasonable level, yet they still continue to level off to a subpar sale rate. Once the 60gb model is completely gone from inventory, is the 80gb really going to be able to sustain high sale rates at the original $600 price? It's a fact that most people are not willing to spend $600 on a console or rush into the next multimedia format because it's an all in one deal (see the mass market thread). There are simply not that many early adopters (and even fanboys) willing to jump in at that price. MS has attempted to sell their console as long as possible at the full price rate. And they did pretty well at that initial price. Sony had no choice but to make a pricecut early to get sales moving again.
A complete reversal of fortune has never happened in a console race. Japan is supposed to be the saving grace but all that happens is sales are high for a week or two around a big game and then immediately drop off. Sony needs a GT game right now because MGS is not going to change this sales trend in Japan and all other games are questionable.