Will PS3 eventually pass 360?

[Parokki]

I'm honestly not sure at all which of the HD consoles will take second place yet. I'd say it's about 50-50 at this point due to a the general similarity between the two. I'd say that's a lot better than how Microsoft thought they'd be doing with their second console. Go 3-5 years into the past and say people are now seriously debating if the next Xbox will beat the next Playstation. They'll probably lock you away. =P

Currently the worst case scenario for both is sales stagnating, 3rd party support abandoning ship, and ending up with a user base of 20-30M. The original Xbox survived in this range due to the vast majority of their consoles being in the US and thus having substantial American developer support, while the Gamecube survived with Nintendo's own first party games. The Xbox 360 would probably be the same as the original in this respect, but the PS3 would be in serious trouble due to being heavily dependent on 3rd party and the unhealthy business model that relies on selling at a less initially, then achieving the highest market share and making all the lost money back later.

I'm fairly certain that one of the big boys is not going to beat 30M units sold. Not enough of a market for two obscenely expensives consoles, and developers are goign to abandon the other once the winner (of the second place) is clear.

On the other hand, both still have a good shot at 50-70M. Both are having their first price drop, and both have some very nice games coming.

Oh snap, I gotta run in a few minutes and leave this unfinished. Anyways, I believe one of the HD consoles will clearly take the momentum during the coming holiday period, and after that it'll be damn near impossible to turn things around. I expect most people will agree with me on this.