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Forums - Sales Discussion - OTHERS NUMBERS IN : huge hurting on ps3

Kantor on 29 November 2008
damndl0ser said:
Kantor said:
dejelek said:
wow, Most of forza sales, are not from bundled,

ok simple math
just add all sales from racing games on xbox 360 whether multiplat or exclusive, also do the same thing on ps3, the differences will be huge.

if recent PS3 exclusive sales is any indication, then maybe KZ2, or GT5 will be not that huge either. it will have good sales, but won't have sales like it hype to be.

Why should recent PS3 exclusive sales be any indication? There's a new, 2D IP; a niche SJRPG; and a very good shooter which sold a lot better than its predecessor. Which we do not have Others data for yet.

Not to mention the install base will be much higher after the holiday season is over.

As you can see from my previous post, the Gran Turismo games on PS1 and PS2 both sold exceptionally well, and the Prologue has sold extremely well too. GTA4 can only fairly be compared to GTA3, because they have been released at the same point in the console cycle. GTA3 and GTA4 have near identical sales, looking at both platforms, so that shows that having a smaller install base does not necessarily mean that sales will be greatly affected.

GTA4 (PS3) has crossed 4 million

MGS4 will cross 4 million

CoD4 (PS3) will cross 4 million

Resistance 2 will likely cross 4 million

GT5 will not be alone in very good sales, although it will sell far higher than any of these. Only GTA exceeded GT's sales last gen, and due to the current gen release, GTA IV, being same-day released on PS3 and 360, sold far less than it could have on PS3, had it been timed exclusive like in the past.

Conclusion: GT5 will be huge. >8 million sales LTD, and a massive hardware boost. I very much doubt it will cross 10 million, though.

 

 

What do you think the attachment rate would be if it sold 8million units?  For every 3 or 4 PS3's out Sony sells 1 unit of GT5? 

I don't see that happening at all for a couple of reasons.  1) Racing games clearly aren't as popular as they once were, atleast here in the states.  2) The attachment rate would have to be too high for the game to sell 8 million units.  Even in a few years it would still be at best 1:4 or 1:5 and I don't see that happening.

If Sony bundles it up it may hit 3.5-4.5 million.  And if it doesn't get bundled it may hit 3 million. (Which is a great # for most games)

There weren't many PS2's on the market when Gran Turismo 3 was released. There will be many more PS3's on the market when Gran Turismo 5 is released. Around 27 million, if we're going by late 2009. Also, GT5 will sell consoles. 

How can it possibly sell 3 million when the multiplat GTA4 sold 5 million on the PS3 with half the install base? Look at the numbers that the earlier Gran Turismo games, especially the first ones on each console (GT and GT3) have done.

 



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

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TheBigFatJ on 29 November 2008
kakarotto said:
Sony might be in a situation they did not foresee, they might have to pricecut ahead of plans.

Sony is in a situation that they cannot control.  They can't drop the price of their console or they'll take bigger losses.

Sony already lost their best exclusives.  They have nothing left to defend.  Let the PS3 fall behind in sales -- they don't care enough about some numbers to throw money at it.

 



Kantor on 29 November 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
kakarotto said:
Sony might be in a situation they did not foresee, they might have to pricecut ahead of plans.

Sony is in a situation that they cannot control.  They can't drop the price of their console or they'll take bigger losses.

Sony already lost their best exclusives.  They have nothing left to defend.  Let the PS3 fall behind in sales -- they don't care enough about some numbers to throw money at it.

 

Sony hasn't 'lost' anything. It's just gone multiplat. And FF, Tekken and DMC are hardly Sony's "best exclusives".



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

dhummel on 29 November 2008

Wow, yes, they have "lost" exclusives, as in they are no longer exclusive. This is usually a huge selling point for buyers. Do you not understand this?



leo-j on 29 November 2008

@dhummel

Who are you talking to?



 

mM
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dhummel on 29 November 2008
leo-j said:
@dhummel

Who are you talking to?

 

Kantor, who stated that the PS3 hasn't lost anything. Also, in case it wasn't clear, I was talking about the PS3.



leo-j on 29 November 2008

I cant disagree at all, its true they have lost a huge amount of exclusives, but they havent lost there 1st party titles, we will see.



 

mM
reask on 29 November 2008

Only thing that may save ps3 is pricecut.



 

 

 

 

dhummel on 29 November 2008
leo-j said:
I cant disagree at all, its true they have lost a huge amount of exclusives, but they havent lost there 1st party titles, we will see.

 

I just think BigFatJ was stating that Sony had lost exclusives. This is definately an issue for the PS3. But I agree that their 1st party is strong, though the sales arent to the leve I was hoping they would be.



Kantor on 29 November 2008

They lost THREE exclusives! DMC, FF and Tekken. Which were NEVER the PS2's best exclusives.

God of War and Shadow of the Colossus were the PS2's best games, and both are first party.

Gran Turismo was the best selling exclusive series on the PS2, and it's first party.

Ratchet and Clank, Jak, ICO, God of War, Gran Turismo, Killzone, all first party.

I think you underestimate Sony's development skills.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective