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Forums - Sales Discussion - OTHERS NUMBERS IN : huge hurting on ps3

damndl0ser on 29 November 2008
Kantor said:
damndl0ser said:
Kantor said:
dejelek said:
wow, Most of forza sales, are not from bundled,

ok simple math
just add all sales from racing games on xbox 360 whether multiplat or exclusive, also do the same thing on ps3, the differences will be huge.

if recent PS3 exclusive sales is any indication, then maybe KZ2, or GT5 will be not that huge either. it will have good sales, but won't have sales like it hype to be.

Why should recent PS3 exclusive sales be any indication? There's a new, 2D IP; a niche SJRPG; and a very good shooter which sold a lot better than its predecessor. Which we do not have Others data for yet.

Not to mention the install base will be much higher after the holiday season is over.

As you can see from my previous post, the Gran Turismo games on PS1 and PS2 both sold exceptionally well, and the Prologue has sold extremely well too. GTA4 can only fairly be compared to GTA3, because they have been released at the same point in the console cycle. GTA3 and GTA4 have near identical sales, looking at both platforms, so that shows that having a smaller install base does not necessarily mean that sales will be greatly affected.

GTA4 (PS3) has crossed 4 million

MGS4 will cross 4 million

CoD4 (PS3) will cross 4 million

Resistance 2 will likely cross 4 million

GT5 will not be alone in very good sales, although it will sell far higher than any of these. Only GTA exceeded GT's sales last gen, and due to the current gen release, GTA IV, being same-day released on PS3 and 360, sold far less than it could have on PS3, had it been timed exclusive like in the past.

Conclusion: GT5 will be huge. >8 million sales LTD, and a massive hardware boost. I very much doubt it will cross 10 million, though.

 

 

What do you think the attachment rate would be if it sold 8million units?  For every 3 or 4 PS3's out Sony sells 1 unit of GT5? 

I don't see that happening at all for a couple of reasons.  1) Racing games clearly aren't as popular as they once were, atleast here in the states.  2) The attachment rate would have to be too high for the game to sell 8 million units.  Even in a few years it would still be at best 1:4 or 1:5 and I don't see that happening.

If Sony bundles it up it may hit 3.5-4.5 million.  And if it doesn't get bundled it may hit 3 million. (Which is a great # for most games)

There weren't many PS2's on the market when Gran Turismo 3 was released. There will be many more PS3's on the market when Gran Turismo 5 is released. Around 27 million, if we're going by late 2009. Also, GT5 will sell consoles. 

How can it possibly sell 3 million when the multiplat GTA4 sold 5 million on the PS3 with half the install base? Look at the numbers that the earlier Gran Turismo games, especially the first ones on each console (GT and GT3) have done.

 

 

GTAIV is a much bigger franchise IMO than GT5.  I am not saying that GT5 will suck or do horrible, I am just stating that there is almost no way it will sell as high as some of you think.  Go into your local game store and look around for a second.  Do you see any GT5 posters or ads?  The excitement for it isn't there, buth I guess there is a lot of time left for it to build.

Lets just say that you are correct and there are 27 million consoles out for sony when this is released.  In order for it sell 9 Million units it would have to have an attach rate of 1:3 and there is no way this will happen. Even if the PS3 takes off and sells 36 million units it would still be 1:4. It would have to do Halo3 numbers and this is never going to happen.

IMO they should have never let this property take so long to get to market, people have lost a lot of interest for it and I think that is very sad.   I love the GT series.



"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."

Quote by- The Imortal John Wayne, the original BADASS!

 

 

 

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dhummel on 30 November 2008
Kantor said:
They lost THREE exclusives! DMC, FF and Tekken. Which were NEVER the PS2's best exclusives.

God of War and Shadow of the Colossus were the PS2's best games, and both are first party.

Gran Turismo was the best selling exclusive series on the PS2, and it's first party.

Ratchet and Clank, Jak, ICO, God of War, Gran Turismo, Killzone, all first party.

I think you underestimate Sony's development skills.

Your PS2's Best are just that, yours. I think the lack of a timed exclusive for PS2 in regards to GTA hurt it big time. You list DMC, FF, and Tekken, but what about the lack of basically any JRPG's on the PS3? Square-Enix's exclusivity (or near exclusivity) to Sony is gone this gen, replaced by a love affair with MS. It's an intangible because I can't say "look at game X, Y, and Z that would have gone to PS3 but are now going to 360<" but I think this factor is still important.

Along these same lines, games that would've gone to the PS2 (probably exclusively) have not this gen for the PS3. I honestly think that if Mass Effect, Bioshock, and Assassin's Creed (another lost exclusive you failed to mention) had been released in 2003, they would have been timed or full PS exclusives.

The point is that the PS has lost more than a list of exclusive games. They have lost that strong PS1 and 2 momentum and a bunch of contingencies that would have probably swung in their favor last gen.



Kantor on 30 November 2008
damndl0ser said:
Kantor said:
damndl0ser said:
Kantor said:
dejelek said:
wow, Most of forza sales, are not from bundled,

ok simple math
just add all sales from racing games on xbox 360 whether multiplat or exclusive, also do the same thing on ps3, the differences will be huge.

if recent PS3 exclusive sales is any indication, then maybe KZ2, or GT5 will be not that huge either. it will have good sales, but won't have sales like it hype to be.

Why should recent PS3 exclusive sales be any indication? There's a new, 2D IP; a niche SJRPG; and a very good shooter which sold a lot better than its predecessor. Which we do not have Others data for yet.

Not to mention the install base will be much higher after the holiday season is over.

As you can see from my previous post, the Gran Turismo games on PS1 and PS2 both sold exceptionally well, and the Prologue has sold extremely well too. GTA4 can only fairly be compared to GTA3, because they have been released at the same point in the console cycle. GTA3 and GTA4 have near identical sales, looking at both platforms, so that shows that having a smaller install base does not necessarily mean that sales will be greatly affected.

GTA4 (PS3) has crossed 4 million

MGS4 will cross 4 million

CoD4 (PS3) will cross 4 million

Resistance 2 will likely cross 4 million

GT5 will not be alone in very good sales, although it will sell far higher than any of these. Only GTA exceeded GT's sales last gen, and due to the current gen release, GTA IV, being same-day released on PS3 and 360, sold far less than it could have on PS3, had it been timed exclusive like in the past.

Conclusion: GT5 will be huge. >8 million sales LTD, and a massive hardware boost. I very much doubt it will cross 10 million, though.

 

 

What do you think the attachment rate would be if it sold 8million units?  For every 3 or 4 PS3's out Sony sells 1 unit of GT5? 

I don't see that happening at all for a couple of reasons.  1) Racing games clearly aren't as popular as they once were, atleast here in the states.  2) The attachment rate would have to be too high for the game to sell 8 million units.  Even in a few years it would still be at best 1:4 or 1:5 and I don't see that happening.

If Sony bundles it up it may hit 3.5-4.5 million.  And if it doesn't get bundled it may hit 3 million. (Which is a great # for most games)

There weren't many PS2's on the market when Gran Turismo 3 was released. There will be many more PS3's on the market when Gran Turismo 5 is released. Around 27 million, if we're going by late 2009. Also, GT5 will sell consoles. 

How can it possibly sell 3 million when the multiplat GTA4 sold 5 million on the PS3 with half the install base? Look at the numbers that the earlier Gran Turismo games, especially the first ones on each console (GT and GT3) have done.

 

 

GTAIV is a much bigger franchise IMO than GT5.  I am not saying that GT5 will suck or do horrible, I am just stating that there is almost no way it will sell as high as some of you think.  Go into your local game store and look around for a second.  Do you see any GT5 posters or ads?  The excitement for it isn't there, buth I guess there is a lot of time left for it to build.

Lets just say that you are correct and there are 27 million consoles out for sony when this is released.  In order for it sell 9 Million units it would have to have an attach rate of 1:3 and there is no way this will happen. Even if the PS3 takes off and sells 36 million units it would still be 1:4. It would have to do Halo3 numbers and this is never going to happen.

IMO they should have never let this property take so long to get to market, people have lost a lot of interest for it and I think that is very sad.   I love the GT series.

I'm saying 8 million, giving roughly the same attach rate as GTA4. Grand Theft Auto is a bigger series than Gran Turismo, but both are huge. However, GTA4 was a multiplat, and the same game could sell 8 million as an exclusive and 4 million on a single console when multiplat.

GTA4 is currently at ~11 million units sold. PS3+Xbox 360 at the moment is ~40 million, which gives us that 1:4 ratio. And sales for it have dried up a lot. I remember GTA4 on PS3 was at around 4.5 million in july.

EDIT: Okay, no they haven't. Holy hell, GTA IV has legs!



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

-General_Ram- on 30 November 2008

im just happy that the Sony Euro hold can and HAS been broken, by both Nintendo and MS.

I guess miracles are possible.



.:Dark Prince:. on 30 November 2008
FishyJoe said:
KillerMan said:

I am still wondering how suddenly X360 sales jumped so dramatically with 20€ price cut. Earlier this year they slashed 70€ of the price and gained maybe extra 20k sales.

 

At a certain level, prices hit mainstream consumer pricing. The 360 has hit a level where the mainstream consumer will buy it. It's not the amount of price cut, but the price at which a consumer is willing to buy a video game console.

That and Microsoft must be doing one hell of a good job at marketing. I see an X360 ad at least 10 times a day, in freaking Greece... where gaming barely exists.