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Forums - Sales Discussion - XBox 360 - 40M Units Sold by the End of Next Year!!!

ZenfoldorVGI on 14 November 2008
MikeB said:

I think it's very unlikely the 360 will reach beyond 40 million LTD like I stated a few years ago. This even with people upgrading older 360s due to RRoD issues or for HDMI.

All major XBox games have now seen 360 sequels and entry pricing is now on par as during the end of the original XBox' lifecycle. So I expect things to get much harder for Microsoft after this holiday season.

I expect:


- Blu-Ray movie compatibility will become even more of a factor, as well as people getting more educated about the gaming advantages like no disc scratching issue to worry about and far more storage space for lossless audio and graphics.


- Already with games like Killzone 2 people will clearly be able to judge which console is by far more powerful.

- Final Fantasy XIII exclusively will probably kill the 360 for Japan.


- Playstation Home will significantly widen the gap with XBox Live for which people have to pay for monthly or yearly subscriptions, something which IMO should be free. Not only will the PS3 have the best PSN content (Warhawk, Super Stardust HD, WipeOut HD, etc, etc) or the most advanced online multiplayer functionality (like 30 vs 30 lag free squad battles or 8 player co-op in Resistance 2, massive LittleBigPlanet user created content, 12 player lag free online in Motorstorm: PR, etc), it will also be the most socially compelling, being able to chat in realtine while playing some chess, pool, bowling, etc with friends and/or new people within a complex game world before adding them to your friendlist.


- Market percentage wise the PS3 will be about on par at the beginning of next year, so like we have seen with the Atari ST vs Amiga it's expected multi-plaform devs will start to take advantage far more of the PS3's unique or distinguishing features, such as additional storage space, Cell processing power and harddrive caching.

Hmm, I think you're being a little pessimistic about the 360's prospects this gen, at about the same level you are optimistic about the PS3's potential...which is to say, you believe the PS3 will outsell the Wii. :P

 



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

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goddog on 14 November 2008

hmm, i think its a gamble of a prediction. but a possibility considering the end of this year so far, and most likely we will see another price drop next october.

next octobers drop might be key, will it be just an axing of the old core/arcade scew, with the other two dropping down, or can ms afford a more staggered drop (I dont think they will be in a position to) to 139, 239, and 339. if they do the staggered drop it is very likely they can do a full 40m. though dropping in that style will need heavy sales of the 239 unit. if they go with the elimination, it will be harder, though overall value to the consumer will be better with the pro at 199, and elite at 299 both with larger hds



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MikeB on 14 November 2008

@ Oyvoyvoyv

People don't care about the Wii looking like crap. And so far, Blu-Ray hasn't shown enough huge advantages. As for people buying a Ps3 just for Blu-Ray, I believe those people make Sony lose money (as they get no, or next to no share of Blu-Ray discs sold.


Many gamers do care about Wii graphics, but there are still many people with SDTVs. There are many threads by Nintendo fans regarding upcoming games which are visually more compelling than what we have seen so far.

The PS2 is still selling well so far, outselling both 360 and PS3 last quarter as well. Despite its huge penetration factor, it still sold 28 million units the last two fully reported on fiscal years. This was all expected.

Graphics seems to play far more a factor amongst the 360's target audience than amongst the PS2 and Wii target audience. You should just see the endless threads regarding minuscule differences reported regarding 360 to PS3 game ports.

And what's more is that the Ps3 is far harder to develop for.


Depends somewhat if you start from scratch or try to re-use older not enough forward designed game engines. Once a game engine is fully adapted and mature this is no longer an issue for follow-up games based on that game engine. It should then be easier as there is more potential artistic freedom.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

tuoyo on 14 November 2008
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
Did someone here just say that the PS3 could reach 40m by the end of 09? Now that is deluded.... 23million in 13 months!?

I expect the 360 to get to high 30's by end of '09... say 37 or 38 million.

 

 23m / 56 weeks = 411k / week. Well..... wait untill.... Price-cut.... GT... God of war... Teh Cell... Killzone...  ahhhh damn it. It wont happen.

I expect the Xbox 360 to be at 35 million at the end of the year 09.

If I'm not mistaking that is about what Wii has been selling for a yearly average.  So you expect PS3 to achive Wii like sales next year?  Are they being given out for free? 

 



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goddog on 14 November 2008
tuoyo said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
Did someone here just say that the PS3 could reach 40m by the end of 09? Now that is deluded.... 23million in 13 months!?

I expect the 360 to get to high 30's by end of '09... say 37 or 38 million.

 

 23m / 56 weeks = 411k / week. Well..... wait untill.... Price-cut.... GT... God of war... Teh Cell... Killzone...  ahhhh damn it. It wont happen.

I expect the Xbox 360 to be at 35 million at the end of the year 09.

If I'm not mistaking that is about what Wii has been selling for a yearly average.  So you expect PS3 to achive Wii like sales next year?  Are they being given out for free? 

 

 

nintendo will buy sony and bundle ps3s with the wii .... 



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MikeB on 14 November 2008

@ ZenfoldorVGI

which is to say, you believe the PS3 will outsell the Wii. :P


I think it's likely, I expect we see a WiiHD well before we see a PS4 and a slimline PS3 on the market for a much longer period of time.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

DirtyP2002 on 14 November 2008
MikeB said:

I think it's very unlikely the 360 will reach beyond 40 million LTD like I stated a few years ago. This even with people upgrading older 360s due to RRoD issues or for HDMI.

All major XBox games have now seen 360 sequels and entry pricing is now on par as during the end of the original XBox' lifecycle. So I expect things to get much harder for Microsoft after this holiday season.

I expect:


- Blu-Ray movie compatibility will become even more of a factor, as well as people getting more educated about the gaming advantages like no disc scratching issue to worry about and far more storage space for lossless audio and graphics.


- Already with games like Killzone 2 people will clearly be able to judge which console is by far more powerful.

- Final Fantasy XIII exclusively will probably kill the 360 for Japan.


- Playstation Home will significantly widen the gap with XBox Live for which people have to pay for monthly or yearly subscriptions, something which IMO should be free. Not only will the PS3 have the best PSN content (Warhawk, Super Stardust HD, WipeOut HD, etc, etc) or the most advanced online multiplayer functionality (like 30 vs 30 lag free squad battles or 8 player co-op in Resistance 2, massive LittleBigPlanet user created content, 12 player lag free online in Motorstorm: PR, etc), it will also be the most socially compelling, being able to chat in realtine while playing some chess, pool, bowling, etc with friends and/or new people within a complex game world before adding them to your friendlist.


- Market percentage wise the PS3 will be about on par at the beginning of next year, so like we have seen with the Atari ST vs Amiga it's expected multi-plaform devs will start to take advantage far more of the PS3's unique or distinguishing features, such as additional storage space, Cell processing power and harddrive caching.
  • MS won't let it happen, that the Xbox360 runs out of software. I REALLY hope for a new Jade Empire :) besides that there is Star Ocean, Halo Wars, Alan Wake, Splinter Cell etc. There is much more to come.
  • or installations for up to 20 minutes
  • Killzone2 looks great. But there is no huge gap to games like Gears of War2. Alan Wake looks great, too.
  • It was never planned that the Xbox360 could be alive in Japan.
  • question of taste
  • What's the point of playing chess before adding them? You can play Halo with them, chat in realtime and adding them afterwards. So I don't see an advantage. Actually I don't see what Home might be good for? I want to play my AAA game. I don't want to make new friends while I am walking around in a virtual world. But maybe thats just me.
  • You can't compare Atari ST vs Amiga with Xbox360 vs Ps3. It is just wrong.

 

 



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

ZenfoldorVGI on 14 November 2008
MikeB said:

@ ZenfoldorVGI

which is to say, you believe the PS3 will outsell the Wii. :P


I think it's likely, I expect we see a WiiHD well before we see a PS4 and a slimline PS3 on the market for a much longer period of time.

 

I really have nothing to say to that, that I could get away with, without it being considered trolling. Good luck with that prediction. I'm not too sure if I would call it "likely" but I'm sure it's possible.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

Paul_Warren on 14 November 2008

Doesn't take into account that the 360 won't have a strong holiday season next year if most of Microsoft's game development for the console is finished up by the Spring of '09 and if Microsoft is preparing to bring out XBOX 3 Holiday '09. The 360 would only sell about 30 million ltd if that is the plan and apparently their plan for next year is to do just that with Halo: Recon being the 360's last hurrah.



My most anticipated games:  Whatever Hideo Kojima is going to do next, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Alan Wake, Wii Sports Resort.  Cave Story Wiiware.

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MikeB on 14 November 2008

@ DirtyP2002

What's the point of playing chess before adding them? You can play Halo with them, chat in realtime and adding them afterwards.


Sure you can play for instance Warhawk and talk with them through headsets. Then add people you got to know.

But for instance a play of chess within a nice gaming world is far less hectic and more personal.

First you judge the person's avatar somewhere regarding maybe some common interests (like in a game dedicated room or watching a trailer) or join into a conversation. If you like them you can ask if he or she likes to play some pool, darts, chess, etc and you will be able to get to know them better. Maybe invite to your or his/her's home were they can see your Home decorations and maybe some private pictures.  Add to your friendlist and maybe play some LittleBigPlanet or Resistance together.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales