Sounds possible to me. As long as MS has a steady stream of quality software that expands the userbase, I don't see why it can't have a measured growth. 38-40 mil after Dec '09 sounds about right.

The price, though, is a bit of a sore point. I honestly can't see them dropping it before 2010. The PS3, on the other hand, will DEFINITELY have one sometime next year. That could affect momentum somewhat.

We are far from full market saturation for these consoles, though. The combined userbase for last gen was nearly 200 million consoles and were currently not even at 75 mil this gen. As prices come down, they will all continue to grow. And since this gen will probably formally last until 2012 (my opinion based on comments from execs and engine builders), that still gives a good 3+ years after this holiday season to continue to grow those userbases.

@Squiliam: Just like your posts. Bookmark it for future use?

30-35k i think. the ps3 could actually make it to 40 million, if sony make the right moves. by right moves i mean DROP THE FUCKING PRICE!!

You do it, I have too many bookmarks as it is.

Quoting people like that is lame, I would hate to have junk like that filling up my signature.

Debating over shipped figures is a waste of time MS could over or underestimate demand for the 360 . It'll likely be round 36-38 Million units 40 is a bit much.

@Sqiliam: I think i can remember the six million, all you have to do is ask in jan 2010.

@Solidsnake: 35k?

35 million or 36 million XBox 360's sold sounds more reasonable by the end of 2009.

 23m / 56 weeks = 411k / week. Well..... wait untill.... Price-cut.... GT... God of war... Teh Cell... Killzone...  ahhhh damn it. It wont happen.

I expect the Xbox 360 to be at 35 million at the end of the year 09.

I think it's very unlikely the 360 will reach beyond 40 million LTD like I stated a few years ago. This even with people upgrading older 360s due to RRoD issues or for HDMI.

All major XBox games have now seen 360 sequels and entry pricing is now on par as during the end of the original XBox' lifecycle. So I expect things to get much harder for Microsoft after this holiday season.

I expect:

- Blu-Ray movie compatibility will become even more of a factor, as well as people getting more educated about the gaming advantages like no disc scratching issue to worry about and far more storage space for lossless audio and graphics.

- Already with games like Killzone 2 people will clearly be able to judge which console is by far more powerful.

- Final Fantasy XIII exclusively will probably kill the 360 for Japan.

- Playstation Home will significantly widen the gap with XBox Live for which people have to pay for monthly or yearly subscriptions, something which IMO should be free. Not only will the PS3 have the best PSN content (Warhawk, Super Stardust HD, WipeOut HD, etc, etc) or the most advanced online multiplayer functionality (like 30 vs 30 lag free squad battles or 8 player co-op in Resistance 2, massive LittleBigPlanet user created content, 12 player lag free online in Motorstorm: PR, etc), it will also be the most socially compelling, being able to chat in realtine while playing some chess, pool, bowling, etc with friends and/or new people within a complex game world before adding them to your friendlist.

- Market percentage wise the PS3 will be about on par at the beginning of next year, so like we have seen with the Atari ST vs Amiga it's expected multi-plaform devs will start to take advantage far more of the PS3's unique or distinguishing features, such as additional storage space, Cell processing power and harddrive caching.

Hehe, interesting. 1/3 of the people in the thread expect the 360 to sell 60M + more, and 1/3 expects it to sell less than 15M more.

As for 40M by the end of the year, I'd say it is a good prediction. I don't know if it will happen, but I was heavily skeptical about Squilliam's sig prediction too.

And MikeB, you list the following things as good for Sony.

- Blu-Ray movie compatibility will become even more of a factor, as well as people getting more educated about the gaming advantages like no disc scratching issue to worry about and far more storage space for lossless audio and graphics.

People don't care about the Wii looking like crap. And so far, Blu-Ray hasn't shown enough huge advantages. As for people buying a Ps3 just for Blu-Ray, I believe those people make Sony lose money (as they get no, or next to no share of Blu-Ray discs sold.

- Final Fantasy XIII exclusively will probably kill the 360 for Japan 

Which takes away ~ 1M from the X360's max total.

- Already with games like Killzone 2 people will clearly be able to judge which console is by far more powerful.

The Ps3 and X360 are closer to each other than the Gamecube and Xbox, yet the power of the consoles meant next to nothing last gen. I don't see this changing more than perhaps 1M users tops.

- Playstation Home will significantly widen the gap with XBox Live for which people have to pay for monthly or yearly subscriptions, something which IMO should be free. Not only will the PS3 have the best PSN content (Warhawk, Super Stardust HD, WipeOut HD, etc, etc) or the most advanced online multiplayer functionality (like 30 vs 30 lag free squad battles or 8 player co-op in Resistance 2, massive LittleBigPlanet user created content, 12 player lag free online in Motorstorm: PR, etc), it will also be the most socially compelling, being able to chat in realtine while playing some chess, pool, bowling, etc with friends and/or new people within a complex game world before adding them to your friendlist.

I can't answer a lot to this, as I own no HD-Console. Still, the Ps3 being far better at online seems unlikely. I'd rather say it appears to be the other way, and even if Ps3 catches up, the quality won't be a major factor. The price may though.

- Market percentage wise the PS3 will be about on par at the beginning of next year, so like we have seen with the Atari ST vs Amiga it's expected multi-plaform devs will start to take advantage far more of the PS3's unique or distinguishing features, such as additional storage space, Cell processing power and harddrive caching.

The differences aren't exactly huge here. And what's more is that the Ps3 is far harder to develop for. I don't think we will see this to a huge extent.