I would say the probability is less then half of a percent. Your analogy has one critical flaw. Even if the Wii fell heavily out of favor, and the PS3 was able to reach those price points. You still have the 360 factor to contend with. Microsoft is supposedly going to be at that sweet spot in a months time. Which will give them a two year head start on working that market segment.

By the time Sony would work themselves to that price point there may very well not be much left to mine, and if the Wii has its demand fall through. Microsoft will be the first to reap the rewards. Even then by the time Sony got there. Microsoft and Nintendo will already have gone to work at even lower price points. Two years would just be too much of an absence.

Then you have the economic issue. Were Sony to put all its energy into reducing the price of their hardware. Microsoft may take even more slack in purchasing exclusive third party titles. The result would be you having a cheap PS3, but all the must have games may be on the 360. In which case you have actually gained nothing, but a media player that plays the occasional game.

You really cannot afford to ignore Microsoft. What Microsoft gains Sony loses. Every 360 sold diminishes the chances of a PS3 sold, and if price is the factor it really is first come first serve. Add the litany of exclusive woes, and the PS3 is actually not the priority on the high definition landscape. Really it is hard to convince consumers that are waiting for the right price to wait two years for what might not be the right machine, and that may come to pass if the lower price point drives consumer adoption.

I'll say make it free, than you'll see some numbers.

Guess it kind of depends. If you ask will it outsell the Wii by the time the first new console comes out (regardless of who releases it) or LTD. Id have to say no way to the first and even if they keep to the "10 yr plan" its still a probable no. But never rule anything out.

 lol i think nearly everyone agrees ps3 can/will pass 360 in somepoint or time. due to the fact japan doesnt like the xbox, and plus it sells decent everywhere else.

No.

Not going to happen. The Wii still needs to match supply to demand in the USA, release in China and India, be released in lots of colours and have its first price cut. It's getting alot of good 3rd party support now.

The PS3 is having its franchises and exclusives taken from it. FFXIII, Monster Hunter 3 as examples. The games division of Sony has been told to focus on breaking even for the moment, not on achieving market share - price cuts will be few and far between

I actually am not that sure of this.  I expect them to pass the 360  but barely.  The 360 will be at the sweet spot soon as you call it and most people that are deciding between the two high def systems will pick up the 360.  The problem with the PS3 is that Sony doesn't have that many kick ass exclusives anymore.  Most of their games are also on the 360.  People look at the price and ....

If the wii is replaced in the next 3-4 years and the PS3 is still going strong in the next 7-8 years, then yeah why not...

Unlikely though.

I think that right now is more about perception, can you see the PS3 getting a better image (I´m not tlaking about HD graphics) than the Wii???

I can´t...

 lately ive noticed more people deciding on the ps3 for its blu-ray, but that might not be the case for everywhere esle but thats the case around here

other then that you do make some valid points, so i guess only time will tell.