Can the ps3 ever pass the wii in hardware sales?

[Dodece]

I would say the probability is less then half of a percent. Your analogy has one critical flaw. Even if the Wii fell heavily out of favor, and the PS3 was able to reach those price points. You still have the 360 factor to contend with. Microsoft is supposedly going to be at that sweet spot in a months time. Which will give them a two year head start on working that market segment.

By the time Sony would work themselves to that price point there may very well not be much left to mine, and if the Wii has its demand fall through. Microsoft will be the first to reap the rewards. Even then by the time Sony got there. Microsoft and Nintendo will already have gone to work at even lower price points. Two years would just be too much of an absence.

Then you have the economic issue. Were Sony to put all its energy into reducing the price of their hardware. Microsoft may take even more slack in purchasing exclusive third party titles. The result would be you having a cheap PS3, but all the must have games may be on the 360. In which case you have actually gained nothing, but a media player that plays the occasional game.

You really cannot afford to ignore Microsoft. What Microsoft gains Sony loses. Every 360 sold diminishes the chances of a PS3 sold, and if price is the factor it really is first come first serve. Add the litany of exclusive woes, and the PS3 is actually not the priority on the high definition landscape. Really it is hard to convince consumers that are waiting for the right price to wait two years for what might not be the right machine, and that may come to pass if the lower price point drives consumer adoption.