Financially, here's how I see it:

(1) Nintendo is widly profitable and will continue to be so.  They can't "lose" this generation because they will profit greatly with both the Wii and the DS

(2) Microsoft has virtually no chance of profiting from the 360.  They may make some profitable quarters before it is all said and done, but overall it will be a loss, and probably a larger loss than it is now.

(3) Sony had a terrible start, but if BluRay wins the HD format battle, they'll be profitable.  The PS3 division alone can probably reach profitability, but that's a long way down the road.  If the PS3 outsells the 360, I'd consider it a success for Sony.

The only thing that has been decided, in my eyes, is that Microsoft will most likely be a loser this generation, financially, where loser is defined as "generating an operating loss due to their product."  Further, before the end their Xbox generation may be tarnished significantly because the Xbox 360 failure issues will almost certainly get far, far worse before they get better.  Even if MS could magically fix the issue and only the first 10 million units would be affected, it would be a significant issue over the next few years.  Failure rates *will* increase with time and the mainstream media is virtually assured to take notice.

I thought mrstickballs 360 numbers for year end were bad, but holy crap John Lucas, I'm a Nintendo geek and I'd never say it'll sell 240 million units, wow, just wow.

Yeah, I'm often called a Nintendo fanboy and it is NOT going to sell over 240 million units.

If we look at past console sales trends, sales have remained steady for each from after the launch period of six months or so.

Therefore we can expect current sales to on average remain constant.

 Based on that, in 2011 (extremely rough guessing from vgcharts graphs over a GC lifetime):

 Wii: ~80m units

X360: ~40m units

 PS3: ~32m units

 ...which pretty much reflects this week's sales figures.

John lucas,

You state the ps3 wont make it out of 2009, and state that the wii will sell over 240 million consoles, and will hit 20 million by years end. First off look at the vgchartz weekly sales numbers even if the wii continues at this pace it will not sell 20 million consoles in 1 year. But the ps3 sales have held steady throughout the world but australia were it is declining.

Auroragb, you make a excellent observation.  However, (prepare to roll your eyes) I agree with John Lucas - mostly.  I won't support that 240m number, but I totally agree that the Wii will break out of the mold all previous games systems have been in. That is to say, 90% of the public see videogames being for kids and (sorry) geeks.  The Wii will be the first system to go truly mainstream, becoming a common-place household device.  As such I also predict within a few years, it won't be uncommon for a house to have multiple Wiis, basically, one for each TV so the kids can play their games, Mom and Dad can play Tiger Woods and Sims, and grandma can bowl whenever she wants.

If you think Wii's impact on the larger market has been impressive so far, wait until Wii Health comes out.  Women love nothing better than the latest health/fitness craze, especially those that are fun and cheap.  Yes cheap, a Wii is a lot cheaper than a lot of those exercise machines people get, use once, and leave to collect dust.  And Wii Health is only the start.  Beating 100m is a foregone conclusion in my mind. It's only a question of by how much.

My only real problem with John Lucas' logic is Auroragb points, and that he's not accounting for competition.  Once the Wii starts to fly, expect a lot of people to jump in with comparible products, most which will fail but some will be quite successful, and all will syphon sales off the Wii. And oh, a little humility wouldn't hurt either John...

As for PS3 and 360, they are only competing with each other really, and for the same core gamer market, which is very well represented on this site.  I hope they both do well and hope John's wrong about the PS3's early dismise. 

Sorry to come off as arrogant. That tone is supposed to represent assured confidence.

I never expect people to agree with my proclamations. I expect and actually welcome the doubt. Upon glance my foretellings DO look crazy. That's why I love making them. I can see something the others can't.

The reason Wii will sell this much is because of the AUDIENCE. AuroraGb thinking that Nintendo can't ramp up production to meet an ever growing demand is frankly unrealistic. No one leaves money sitting on the table like that. If the demand is there you bet your bottom dollar they will make 'em. They may continue to fall short of satiating demand but they will do their best to match it because there is money to be made: pure and simple. They will simply do what they have to do because it would be wasted opportunity if they don't.

You're doggone right, Gamerace. "A common household device". That's EXACTLY what I saw when I said 240,000,000 AT LEAST. And this system will go beyond the 5 year span. It will be too successful to abort prematurely. This thing is set to be a cultural phenomenon, folks. I'd really wish people stop looking at this machine as an ordinary "gamesystem" because it ain't. What Nintendo has in mind for this device will change the household dynamic. It's gonna be as common as a VCR or DVD player and held just as prominently on the entertainment center.

People simply have limited vision. I'm going beyond the current established times and current expectations and current conventional wisdom to make my forecasts. People doubted me before and I proved myself right. I live for it. I love it when people doubt my seemingly bizarre claims.

No I'm not perfect and I'm a man who's still learning. But I refuse to wait for the wind to blow a certain way before making a stand. Anything I see clearly I express. Time will have to prove me right or wrong.

I made predictions BEFORE this generation even started and my knowledge limitations didn't allow me to fathom that Sony would sabotage itself. I learned a new lesson there. But right here in the thread I'll show you you can see how I can forecast things long range and be correct.

Me from 2005: Future of Next-Generation of Gaming

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254

I was talked down there as well and right now I'm sitting pretty as my visions are coming true.

Underestimating the WiiDS Phenomenon is a fool's venture. I know better. Nintendo's about to embark on success they have never imagined before. It will change the company.

Competition didn't derail the PS2 nor the PS1. The race is over and it is only a matter of how much Nintendo can stretch out this success.

XBox 360 like I knew nearly 2 years ago is vampiring Sony's market. They have made PS3 redundant and irrelevant. With Wii attacking from other side PS3's chances are slim to none. Only a miracle can pull them through now. They have to concentrate on keeping up with XBox 360 just to stay viable. But frankly no I don't see PS3 lasting beyond 2009. Devs are shifting as we speak. The writing's been on the wall a long time. Sony is no Nintendo and cannot last as the underdog on their own 1st party franchises.

Like I always say, just wait and see. Time is a tattletale.

John Lucas 

You must have forgotten about a little period called "The Holidays". The rates will change. Rates never stay the same and Wii rates are higher than rates for other systems.

You'll just have to see it to believe it like everyone else.

Boy, I'm going to have a very rewarding New Year's 2008.

John Lucas 

John Lucas, you are a pleasure to read, you made my day.

John Lucas will be proven wrong with his silly prediction soon and constantly. We already know Wii won't outsell X360 in July (people love the box ). Second half of the year with huge titles from next gen camp (Halo, GTA, Lair, Heavenly Sword, Ratchet, MGS4...) definitely won't help Wii to achieve 20 million. I expect a major decrease in Wii's sale soon.

@ John Lucas

Do you even allow such option like - you are wrong?