Why this generation has already been decided

[auroragb]

johnlucas said:

You will learn like they all do.

Stop underestimating this system. So many are surprised by this success and how it never seems to subside and coast off to "normal ranges". I am not. It is because I saw its potential beforehand. All it's doing is just completing the checklist I long mentally put together. I'm just checking down the list on each achievement I saw it fulfilling long ago.

Um I'm not sure if you noticed this but Wii's about to sell 10 million in little over half a year (get ready for July) so no PS2 and Wii are not running on the same levels. I think a chart on this site shows that Wii's trending higher HIGHER than the PS2.

It's about the audience Wii can reach. Atari made the market. NES expanded the market. The PlayStations expanded the market further. The Wii will HIGHLY expand the market even further.

Not only will I tell you that the Wii will double PS2 sales but I will tell you that Wii will double PS2 sales EASILY.

That's right I said it. At WORST case scenario Wii will double the PS2's sales. That's WORSE case scenario. Best case is frankly hard to believe because I guarantee you there has never been a system like this before and even my wildest dreams on how it fulfills its potential may fall short. I'm dead serious.

This is what they called it: A revolution. It has changed how the game is played. All the rules have been rewritten. It will become a cultural force beyond what NES accomplished which is saying a hell of a lot. Not just a hit selling system. A cultural force. There's a difference.

240,000,000 worldwide is child's play for this system, I guarantee you.

You may think I'm blindly shooting at the moon and so do many others. But I will be here months from now saying the same thing and slowly but surely you will find yourself agreeing with me.

Wii and DS will go on to be the greatest selling console and handheld in videogame history. Bar none.

Doubt the WiiDS Phenomenon if you will. All I can tell you is the 2006-2007 period is just the warm up.

Baby BELIEVE me you ain't seen NOTHING yet.

VGChartz Official Idiot as deemed by the great Christopher_G2,

John Lucas

While I agree that beating PS2 is entirely possible, 240M is just not realistic.  Honestly, number of people capable of affording any console is roughly about 1 billion, which is roughly comprised of somewhere between 350-450M families. PS2 penetrated roughly 60M families (~2/family due to breakage, replacement, new edition, multi-consoles).

To sell 240M you have to reach at least 120M families, which is > 25% of all non-poverty families.  This is rather unlikely. 

Another thing is the simple sales.  Let's say Wii has a 5 year life (fair, if a tad optimistic).  It would sell < 20M in the first year (Nov to Nov). It would need to sell > 55M / year for the next 4 years.  This is just an unreasonably high number. No matter how successful the Wii is, ninty would never ramp the production level to 55M/yr before 2010.  So 240M is just an unsupportable number