Why this generation has already been decided

[johnlucas]

Gamerace said:

auroragb said:

 

While I agree that beating PS2 is entirely possible, 240M is just not realistic. Honestly, number of people capable of affording any console is roughly about 1 billion, which is roughly comprised of somewhere between 350-450M families. PS2 penetrated roughly 60M families (~2/family due to breakage, replacement, new edition, multi-consoles).

To sell 240M you have to reach at least 120M families, which is > 25% of all non-poverty families. This is rather unlikely.

Another thing is the simple sales. Let's say Wii has a 5 year life (fair, if a tad optimistic). It would sell < 20M in the first year (Nov to Nov). It would need to sell > 55M / year for the next 4 years. This is just an unreasonably high number. No matter how successful the Wii is, ninty would never ramp the production level to 55M/yr before 2010. So 240M is just an unsupportable number

Auroragb, you make a excellent observation. However, (prepare to roll your eyes) I agree with John Lucas - mostly. I won't support that 240m number, but I totally agree that the Wii will break out of the mold all previous games systems have been in. That is to say, 90% of the public see videogames being for kids and (sorry) geeks. The Wii will be the first system to go truly mainstream, becoming a common-place household device. As such I also predict within a few years, it won't be uncommon for a house to have multiple Wiis, basically, one for each TV so the kids can play their games, Mom and Dad can play Tiger Woods and Sims, and grandma can bowl whenever she wants.

If you think Wii's impact on the larger market has been impressive so far, wait until Wii Health comes out. Women love nothing better than the latest health/fitness craze, especially those that are fun and cheap. Yes cheap, a Wii is a lot cheaper than a lot of those exercise machines people get, use once, and leave to collect dust. And Wii Health is only the start. Beating 100m is a foregone conclusion in my mind. It's only a question of by how much.

My only real problem with John Lucas' logic is Auroragb points, and that he's not accounting for competition. Once the Wii starts to fly, expect a lot of people to jump in with comparible products, most which will fail but some will be quite successful, and all will syphon sales off the Wii. And oh, a little humility wouldn't hurt either John...

As for PS3 and 360, they are only competing with each other really, and for the same core gamer market, which is very well represented on this site. I hope they both do well and hope John's wrong about the PS3's early dismise.

Sorry to come off as arrogant. That tone is supposed to represent assured confidence.

I never expect people to agree with my proclamations. I expect and actually welcome the doubt. Upon glance my foretellings DO look crazy. That's why I love making them. I can see something the others can't.

The reason Wii will sell this much is because of the AUDIENCE. AuroraGb thinking that Nintendo can't ramp up production to meet an ever growing demand is frankly unrealistic. No one leaves money sitting on the table like that. If the demand is there you bet your bottom dollar they will make 'em. They may continue to fall short of satiating demand but they will do their best to match it because there is money to be made: pure and simple. They will simply do what they have to do because it would be wasted opportunity if they don't.

You're doggone right, Gamerace. "A common household device". That's EXACTLY what I saw when I said 240,000,000 AT LEAST. And this system will go beyond the 5 year span. It will be too successful to abort prematurely. This thing is set to be a cultural phenomenon, folks. I'd really wish people stop looking at this machine as an ordinary "gamesystem" because it ain't. What Nintendo has in mind for this device will change the household dynamic. It's gonna be as common as a VCR or DVD player and held just as prominently on the entertainment center.

People simply have limited vision. I'm going beyond the current established times and current expectations and current conventional wisdom to make my forecasts. People doubted me before and I proved myself right. I live for it. I love it when people doubt my seemingly bizarre claims.

No I'm not perfect and I'm a man who's still learning. But I refuse to wait for the wind to blow a certain way before making a stand. Anything I see clearly I express. Time will have to prove me right or wrong.

I made predictions BEFORE this generation even started and my knowledge limitations didn't allow me to fathom that Sony would sabotage itself. I learned a new lesson there. But right here in the thread I'll show you you can see how I can forecast things long range and be correct.

Me from 2005: Future of Next-Generation of Gaming

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254

I was talked down there as well and right now I'm sitting pretty as my visions are coming true.

Underestimating the WiiDS Phenomenon is a fool's venture. I know better. Nintendo's about to embark on success they have never imagined before. It will change the company.

Competition didn't derail the PS2 nor the PS1. The race is over and it is only a matter of how much Nintendo can stretch out this success.

XBox 360 like I knew nearly 2 years ago is vampiring Sony's market. They have made PS3 redundant and irrelevant. With Wii attacking from other side PS3's chances are slim to none. Only a miracle can pull them through now. They have to concentrate on keeping up with XBox 360 just to stay viable. But frankly no I don't see PS3 lasting beyond 2009. Devs are shifting as we speak. The writing's been on the wall a long time. Sony is no Nintendo and cannot last as the underdog on their own 1st party franchises.

Like I always say, just wait and see. Time is a tattletale.

John Lucas