auroragb said:
johnlucas said:
You will learn like they all do. Stop underestimating this system. So many are surprised by this success and how it never seems to subside and coast off to "normal ranges". I am not. It is because I saw its potential beforehand. All it's doing is just completing the checklist I long mentally put together. I'm just checking down the list on each achievement I saw it fulfilling long ago. Um I'm not sure if you noticed this but Wii's about to sell 10 million in little over half a year (get ready for July) so no PS2 and Wii are not running on the same levels. I think a chart on this site shows that Wii's trending higher HIGHER than the PS2. It's about the audience Wii can reach. Atari made the market. NES expanded the market. The PlayStations expanded the market further. The Wii will HIGHLY expand the market even further. Not only will I tell you that the Wii will double PS2 sales but I will tell you that Wii will double PS2 sales EASILY. That's right I said it. At WORST case scenario Wii will double the PS2's sales. That's WORSE case scenario. Best case is frankly hard to believe because I guarantee you there has never been a system like this before and even my wildest dreams on how it fulfills its potential may fall short. I'm dead serious. This is what they called it: A revolution. It has changed how the game is played. All the rules have been rewritten. It will become a cultural force beyond what NES accomplished which is saying a hell of a lot. Not just a hit selling system. A cultural force. There's a difference. 240,000,000 worldwide is child's play for this system, I guarantee you. You may think I'm blindly shooting at the moon and so do many others. But I will be here months from now saying the same thing and slowly but surely you will find yourself agreeing with me. Wii and DS will go on to be the greatest selling console and handheld in videogame history. Bar none. Doubt the WiiDS Phenomenon if you will. All I can tell you is the 2006-2007 period is just the warm up. Baby BELIEVE me you ain't seen NOTHING yet. VGChartz Official Idiot as deemed by the great Christopher_G2, John Lucas |
While I agree that beating PS2 is entirely possible, 240M is just not realistic. Honestly, number of people capable of affording any console is roughly about 1 billion, which is roughly comprised of somewhere between 350-450M families. PS2 penetrated roughly 60M families (~2/family due to breakage, replacement, new edition, multi-consoles). To sell 240M you have to reach at least 120M families, which is > 25% of all non-poverty families. This is rather unlikely. Another thing is the simple sales. Let's say Wii has a 5 year life (fair, if a tad optimistic). It would sell < 20M in the first year (Nov to Nov). It would need to sell > 55M / year for the next 4 years. This is just an unreasonably high number. No matter how successful the Wii is, ninty would never ramp the production level to 55M/yr before 2010. So 240M is just an unsupportable number |
Auroragb, you make a excellent observation. However, (prepare to roll your eyes) I agree with John Lucas - mostly. I won't support that 240m number, but I totally agree that the Wii will break out of the mold all previous games systems have been in. That is to say, 90% of the public see videogames being for kids and (sorry) geeks. The Wii will be the first system to go truly mainstream, becoming a common-place household device. As such I also predict within a few years, it won't be uncommon for a house to have multiple Wiis, basically, one for each TV so the kids can play their games, Mom and Dad can play Tiger Woods and Sims, and grandma can bowl whenever she wants.
If you think Wii's impact on the larger market has been impressive so far, wait until Wii Health comes out. Women love nothing better than the latest health/fitness craze, especially those that are fun and cheap. Yes cheap, a Wii is a lot cheaper than a lot of those exercise machines people get, use once, and leave to collect dust. And Wii Health is only the start. Beating 100m is a foregone conclusion in my mind. It's only a question of by how much.
My only real problem with John Lucas' logic is Auroragb points, and that he's not accounting for competition. Once the Wii starts to fly, expect a lot of people to jump in with comparible products, most which will fail but some will be quite successful, and all will syphon sales off the Wii. And oh, a little humility wouldn't hurt either John...
As for PS3 and 360, they are only competing with each other really, and for the same core gamer market, which is very well represented on this site. I hope they both do well and hope John's wrong about the PS3's early dismise.
