Financially, here's how I see it:
(1) Nintendo is widly profitable and will continue to be so. They can't "lose" this generation because they will profit greatly with both the Wii and the DS
(2) Microsoft has virtually no chance of profiting from the 360. They may make some profitable quarters before it is all said and done, but overall it will be a loss, and probably a larger loss than it is now.
(3) Sony had a terrible start, but if BluRay wins the HD format battle, they'll be profitable. The PS3 division alone can probably reach profitability, but that's a long way down the road. If the PS3 outsells the 360, I'd consider it a success for Sony.
The only thing that has been decided, in my eyes, is that Microsoft will most likely be a loser this generation, financially, where loser is defined as "generating an operating loss due to their product." Further, before the end their Xbox generation may be tarnished significantly because the Xbox 360 failure issues will almost certainly get far, far worse before they get better. Even if MS could magically fix the issue and only the first 10 million units would be affected, it would be a significant issue over the next few years. Failure rates *will* increase with time and the mainstream media is virtually assured to take notice.
