The dismissive attitude towards the line-up is certainly over the top though the lack of any megatons this year is a notable negative so it basically comes down to that it's looking increasingly likely the Switch 2 will only have one megaton release a full two years in while the Switch 1 had a few when it turned two years old. It looks likely it'll get multiple next year though so business wise spreading it out that way will end up working out really well since the Switch 2 will need a big first party push next year to prevent sales momentum from declining notably.

I do question what you would consider “megaton”.

Judging off OoT Remake’s Twitter stats (it having received more likes than any Tweet regarding major releases such as Tears of the Kingdom and Smash Ultimate), I think it’s fairly safe to assume this could be viewed as a megaton release. Furthermore, look at Pokopia and Switch Sports Resort— two games that will absolutely enter 10M territory. That’s three games just this year alone. And last year had MKWorld and DKBananza (as well as Legends Z-A though cross gen… meanwhile there was no way to play Pokémon on NS1 prior to November 2018).

Compare that to Switch 1’s biggest hitters from first year-and-a-half (BotW, SMOdyssey, Splatoon 2), and you won’t find much of a difference.

Games that will end up in the top 10 Switch 2 sales when all is said and done. MK World is probably right at the top. It's unlikely anything else that will release before the end of the year will be.

Outside of BOTW and Tears of the Kingdom style Zelda, it's never been a massive selling franchise. Maybe ocarina remake can break that mould but I don't see it hitting roughly 20m.

Outside of MK, Nintendo's 10 biggest games for the system are probably all 2027 or later.

It's not impossible that Pokopia/Switch Sports Resort have a shot with good legs but I don't see them competing with the likes of Smash, 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokémon and the next Mainline Zelda.

These are Nintendo's megaton games: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/switch.html

Y’know this is actually a pretty solid response to my post. Though even still, that’s two games versus potentially three (BotW, SMOdyssey v. OoT, Pokopia, MKWorld… I’m not counting Wii U Deluxe Editions).

Those are significant releases for sure but aren't 3D Mario, Smash, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart etc level unless the Ocarina remake does as well as the last two 3D Zelda games. I wouldn't consider Bananza that level either though it's still significant. I was considering BotW, Odyssey and Smash Ultimate the few megatons for the Switch 1's first couple years while the Switch 2 looks like it'll just get MKW so the lack of truly huge hype inducing releases will be a big factor in the current negativity and MKW's reception being sorta mixed also doesn't help with that. Again though the negative attitude is definitely over the top and should go away if 2027 is as good as it looks like it should be.

I blame the format of the Direct. The problem is when a direct is dozens of vignettes is that it feels like a lot of fluff. This is because a vignette is insufficient in selling people on the game. Instead, the majority are only focused on the games they’re already anticipating. So, people often focus on what’s not in the Direct rather than what is there… well, outside of those performative bonkers-reaction influencers… you know, the type that react without filter: the sort whose reaction to seeing a 45 second clip of Pikmin or Dragon Quest Monsters is on the same magnitude as winning the showcase on The Price is Right.

Paradoxically, had Nintendo focused on a few highlight games, show why people should be interested in them, the Direct would have felt far more substantial.

So esteemed IP that are known to sell well? That feels a little restrictive, no? Pokopia is certainly a game that should be considered such if we’re going by the metric of sales figures. Or if going by acclaim, then DK.

I dont see why any of us should care how much pokopia sells when discussing this

Well what do you define to be a heavy-hitting release? Are you critiquing my prestige or sales? If the latter, then bringing up the sales of Pokopia is perfectly valid— that’d be the equivalent to dismissing Animal Crossing New Horizons. If the former, then… well… i guess Pokopia also fits that bill.

There really is no evidence that Pokopia will sell anything close to AC:NH. It's off to a good start but whether it has the legs to make it to 20m is debatable. Much less 50m like AC.