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Forums - Sales - Prediction: MS won't subsidize 10th Gen Xbox & it will cost $650 or more.

IcaroRibeiro on 16 July 2025
Cerebralbore101 said:

Are you kidding? Your typical AAA single player game costs 300 million to make. Between Concord and buying Bungie alone that would be 4.4 billion. That's enough to fund 14 more games at the level of Spiderman 2. Imagine the PS5 with a minimum of four 9/10 rated exclusives a year. They would have sold at least 10 million more consoles from the exclusives alone and at least couple million from no PC ports. PS5 might even be looking at 100 million by now if they had just focused on good exclusive games. 

They don't have workforce for that. The money they spent on Bungie would take a couple of years hiring until they make teams ready to create games, and each of those new games would be a gamble on itself. Overinflating workforce in Tec to spend money only leads to mass lay-offs

Buying Bungie on itself took 1.2 billion only to retain the workforce to create new games and they still had to lay-off half of the staff 



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Otter on 16 July 2025
Cerebralbore101 said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

So far, there hasn't been any serious consequences from the "mistakes" you mention though. Have the Gaas and PC ports really hurt them? Did people stop buying Playstations like people did with Xbox's ? PlayStation 5 may look like a failure compared to PS4 but PS4 was a less ambitious in its design and engineered with immediate profit in mind. It was always going to be hard to compete with PS4 sales.  

GaaS has definitely hurt them. Between buying Bungie and cancelled GaaS products they've burned 6 billion with no profits outside of Destiny money. PC ports will hurt them next gen. PC ports are a "good for business in the short term, but awful for business in the long term" type of strategy. 

Ironically I think this is short term thinking. Do you think 150m people will continually keep buying new $599 Sony/Xbox hardware based off increasingly redundant power leaps that most devs can't utilise within a reasonable budget/dev cycle? Essentially there is a limit in audience and then a predicted decline in traditional console sales and revenue (per game) based off the current trajectory. 

These 2 games are 5 years apart and belonging to different generations of hardware and I legit wouldn't be confident saying which one was most recent based off these screens alone





Meanwhile In the past generational gaps of 5 years  (And they had time for another game inbetween this)





-------

Sony know they have hit a ceiling without introducing radical change, and that is why they're forward thinking and planning a future which is not tied exclusively to the next playstation selling 120m. In the meantime we can see from their PC software sales and PS hardware sales that the PC strategy has rarely dented the interest in playstation hardware for the majority of their audience. 

Last edited by Otter - on 16 July 2025

curl-6 on 16 July 2025

At the rate we're going, with the PS5 Pro costing $700 as a mere current gen revision, I shudder to think how much Nextbox and PS6 will cost.

Something's got to give, the cost of hardware is growing higher and higher while graphical progress is stalling due to diminishing returns, not to mention so much of the world already struggling to cope with the cost of living.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 16 July 2025

Darwinianevolution on 16 July 2025

If Microsoft continues making consoles, they will be more akin to pre-made computers, with the latest Windows and an XBox launcher for their games. I don't think they will be able to continue their hardware for much longer if they take any other route. They will move to be mainly publishers, with the GamePass being their platform focus.

Also, the XBox Tablet will sell less than the Vita.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Otter on 16 July 2025
curl-6 said:

At the rate we're going, with the PS5 Pro costing $700 as a mere current gen revision, I shudder to think how much Nextbox and PS6 will cost.

Something's got to give, the cost of hardware is growing higher and higher while graphical progress is stalling due to diminishing returns, not to mention so much of the world already struggling to cope with the cost of living.

I do think a large part of this is Sony treating PS5 Pro as an enthusiast, high margin device. And way more so then the PS4 Pro. PS4 Pro was their first proper effort at a mid-gen upgrade and with an especially easy selling point of 4k. The 1:5 Ratio we saw at a very reasonable price made it clear to Sony the limited audience for such a device and they know that PS5 Pro is a way harder sell. There is no singular USP unlike 4k with 4Pro.

I suspect $599 will be the entry price point for next gen, with the added benefit that cross gen will continue for the foreseeable future for people on a budget.



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BraLoD on 16 July 2025
Cerebralbore101 said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

The PS3 vs 360 era was the only time when PlayStation and Sony overall was suffering. Every other console has been a success. GaaS failures and PC ports don't necessarily seriously interfere with the success of a console. You could argue that they could have invested those few billion into better games and kept 100% exclusivity they might have sold a million more consoles, but is that one million console loss going to prove to be fatal for their business? No. This is what I don't understand why people keep harping on about small failures. Has it sold well enough to convince Sony to produce a PS6 ? Absolutely, and that's all that matters. Has XBSS/X sold well enough to do the same? No. 

Are you kidding? Your typical AAA single player game costs 300 million to make. Between Concord and buying Bungie alone that would be 4.4 billion. That's enough to fund 14 more games at the level of Spiderman 2. Imagine the PS5 with a minimum of four 9/10 rated exclusives a year. They would have sold at least 10 million more consoles from the exclusives alone and at least couple million from no PC ports. PS5 might even be looking at 100 million by now if they had just focused on good exclusive games. 

I don't know if they would be selling much more PS5s... it's on pace with the PS4 the entire gen.



Link: www.facebook.com/FernandoGuadixartworks/

Cerebralbore101 on 16 July 2025
BraLoD said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Are you kidding? Your typical AAA single player game costs 300 million to make. Between Concord and buying Bungie alone that would be 4.4 billion. That's enough to fund 14 more games at the level of Spiderman 2. Imagine the PS5 with a minimum of four 9/10 rated exclusives a year. They would have sold at least 10 million more consoles from the exclusives alone and at least couple million from no PC ports. PS5 might even be looking at 100 million by now if they had just focused on good exclusive games. 

I don't know if they would be selling much more PS5s... it's on pace with the PS4 the entire gen.

One of those exclusives is a LoD Remake on the level of FF7 Remake. ;)



Panicradio on 17 July 2025
curl-6 said:

At the rate we're going, with the PS5 Pro costing $700 as a mere current gen revision, I shudder to think how much Nextbox and PS6 will cost.

Something's got to give, the cost of hardware is growing higher and higher while graphical progress is stalling due to diminishing returns, not to mention so much of the world already struggling to cope with the cost of living.

If profits were kind of equally shared with workers around the world, a 700 bucks console wouldn't really raise anyone's eyebrow.

I know that I am making a big detour here, but I truly believe that after 40, 50 or even 60 years of industries and companies have benefited hugely from global capitalism, we now enter an age in which companies and politics slowly realize that the people who are working for them begin to not being able anymore to afford the products or services they've been producing - after the costs of living.

It's still in the early stages of realization anyway.

But you can clearly see it even in the gaming industry, which has been pumped up to a massive billion dollar market globally thanks to microtransactions, subscriptions, shallow ideas, AI and lesser consumer rights (but higher margins) in digital distribution.

Well, anyway, sorry for digressing.

I think PS6 will hit its ceiling somewhere between 599-649.

(Which would be totally okay, under normal or progressive circumstances, because frankly, I even want workers at Foxconn to live an affordable life.)



BraLoD on 17 July 2025
Cerebralbore101 said:
BraLoD said:

I don't know if they would be selling much more PS5s... it's on pace with the PS4 the entire gen.

One of those exclusives is a LoD Remake on the level of FF7 Remake. ;)

Why would LoD need to be downgraded so much to match FF7 level tho? :(



Link: www.facebook.com/FernandoGuadixartworks/

Manlytears on 17 July 2025

Based on leaks, next Xbox is likely going to be +$700 Overglorified "onboard PC".

Imho, It Will only have BWC with "playanywhere" titles. It will also have ALL the big "optimisation" problems of common PCs.

It will Flop Hard, perhaps below WiiU Sales.