It will be a PC with a xbox sticker on it and it will be made by a third party. It will be merely a PC prebuild, a load of rubbish basically.

A price increase alone cannot confirm that subsidisation is or isn't in place unless we know the exact cost they were dealing with before and expect to deal with in future. For example was the Xbox selling any hardware at a loss in 2024? Was the price increase driven mainly by concerns around Tarifs? They could technically still be subsidising hardware if Tarifs go into effect. Is it an attempt to cover increasing costs or expenditure elsewhere?

There is no historical precent as the last consoles Xbox launched were subsidised. And subsidization for a product is not a black/white flip...For example PS4 was apparently sold at a profit from year 2, meanwhile Series X is was apparently sold at a lessor loss compared to Series S. Seeking profit at one point doesn't mean you will never elsewhere be willing to make a loss. There are different pricing strategies for different systems and these can change throughout a systems life.  For Xbox Pricing and strategy is based off market conditions and other variable factors, so I don't think a price increase 5 years into a generation where their competitor has already done so in most markets, can confirm that there will be no subsidising in future (for new platforms.)

My expectation is MS will have one system at break even and another at a slight profit, which will be less subsidising then what they have done in the past.

As long as they give me access to b/c games from Xbox/360/One/Series - I'll be there.

PS3 actually didn't fail. Sony had other priorities at the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray. The PS3 quickly killed the prospect of a long battle between HD-DVD and Blu-ray by turning the ps3 in a 'cheap' blu-ray player compared to standalone blu-ray players ($1200 at the time)

What we got was a subsidized blu-ray player :/ Which caused the extra delay for the PS3 launch due to blue laser diode shortage at the time. 

Sony sacrificed their gaming division for their movie / blu-ray platform. Kinda like how MS is sacrificing their gaming division now for AI... (And Sony for live service games)

No matter what they say I fail to see them putting out another console, they are only saying that to keep things from quickly imploding as they want and need a long drawn out ramp down out of business. They can't simply step off like Sega cause they are attached to MS so heavily as well as things being so tricky in the digital age. They definitely have an end of life plan on place and are making tracks on that path.

The year is 2030. Xbox 1/4th Teaspoon has been out for four years. Xbox 1/8th Teaspoon and Xbox 1/2 Cup launched in 2028. 1/4th Teaspoon is the $800 model on par with PS6 which launched in 2027. Xbox 1/2 Cup is almost as weak as Series S. Anyway, sales for these new Xboxes have been abysmal. It's blatantly obvious to anyone in 2030 that 10th Gen Xbox won't break 20 million units lifetime. Sony and Nintendo have all the retail floor space. Xbox gets as much floor space as VR headsets or Saturn in the 90's. Like the Steam Deck most people just order their Xboxes online in 2030. You are Sony. Nothing stands in your way. PS6 is selling 400,000 a week on average. You can't make PS6's fast enough. It's always out of stock and scalpers are selling it for $900. People will buy your PS6 whether it is $500 or $750 as long as it is cheaper and better than Xbox 1/4th Teaspoon. In the previous Gen you went from making Playstation cost less as time went on to making it cost more. Games now cost double what they used to, to make. What do you do? 

My expectations for their console are essentially this but relative the ROG, the homeconsole will be far more value for money in terms of tech inside it (hence MS still subsidising to some extent, more so with the entry device)

You're really overcomplicating this. This gen has proved one thing and that is people were willing to stick with the previous gen for a very long time. It took until 2025 for the PS5 to have more MAU than PS4 (Sony's official report). If the PS6 doesn't subsidize, it will take even longer for PS6 to be the mostly used platform over PS5. PS5's will be relatively cheap when PS6 launches and they'll be really cheap if your Ok with second hand. If They price PS6 too high people are just going to stick with PS5 and they won't have a fast enough adoption rate for the console model to be successful. 

There is not way it will cost $650 even if they were to subsidize it.
The Series X is already just $50 less expensive than that, and the 2TB model is already $80 more expensive than that, and that is current gen.

I feel like people forgotten that the Series S exists and helped MS actually sell well during the chip shortage. At one point the majority of Xbox systems sold were S'. There will be a low-end and high end machine, based on the same principle. And SerieX can't function as the "low-end" entry point because it doesn't have the AI/Deeplearning capacity that will shape the future systems.