Good catch. Very good.

I would place it between the Wii and Game Boy unless it ends up being an even longer generation than last time.

It will obviously have better launch numbers though.

3.5 million units sold in the first four days on the market.

2.16% progression - Off to an excellent start.

I'm going to use a progress bar to track the Road To 162 million along with many other charts that are currently being worked on.  Once I finalize my designs, I'll start adding them to the front OP page as well as updating as the sales numbers come in. 

Will never happen

I'd give it a 5% chance of this happening. It would take some absolute bangers in terms of software. If the next 3D Mario and Zelda (or possibly another IP that blows up) both make as big of a splash as BotW did when it first launched then maybe it can happen.

TotK released too recently to expect a 3D Zelda game anytime soon, so I don't see that happening even if it is as monumentally successful as BotW.

Except for Japan it seems to be that stockholders in the West don't care about how many units get sold but how much profit is made with each consumer. The group of gamers who will only buy a few games for a system and will likely not join NSO will less likely get the system.
- Whats third party going to do?
- Will Nintendo open more studios? Have more releases? Third party exclusives?
etc..

Anyway always fun in retrospect...

his feelings

Optimistic. That said I think the Switch 2 will fall short of Switch 1. It certainly is more frontloaded, because nowadays everything is. But the real test is the peak years and Switch 1 had an *insane* peak. Beating that will be much harder and I don't see how S2 will be able to.

So let's argue a bit more detailed.

S2 is a great upgrade on S1 and will be very successful by that measure. But upgrades tend to be less exciting than the original new ideas. That includes the mouse function, because this is mostly a feature aimed to support already existing games on PC now on console. There are some possibilities playing with 2 mouse controllers, but this is limited. It will not allow for a new gaming experience that players need to play. DragxDrive is about what Nintendo could come up with, if they had a Wii Sports idea, we would see that.

But PS2 beat PS1 you say? Yes. because Sony was extending the market globally. They expanded especially into europe, but also other regions. That expanded market did help them immensely. They couldn't beat that afterwards, because the earth is limited. Some could argue, that China and India are entering on a more global scale, but both markets are difficult. But I agree, if these markets get easier in the lifetime of Switch 2, they may boost it past the first Switch. But that is a big IF.

To make my point clear: Switch is the consolidated hybrid experience (as was the 3DS the consolidated handheld experience) that is designed to allow for as much games as possible to play in that format. But it offers no generally new gaming experiences.

Now, there is one thing I should meantion that will help Switch 2: it will be the last traditional console. Yes, Xbox and Playstation will have new iterations of their hardware. But it will feel less like a platform (and in parts already does). Instead their consoles will be *one* place to guide players to their real goals, which is Gamepass for Xbox and life service games for Playstation. These real goals will be available on other platforms, possibly even Switch 2. Because Sony and MS want to expand the reach of these as much as they can. Which leaves only Switch 2 as the last classical console experience. But I doubt every Xbox/PS gamer is converted to Switch though. But some will, the same way as 3DS soaked up a lot of the PSP players and in turn Switch 2 a lot of the PS Vita players.

In conclusion: beating Switch will be unlikely, but if it does we will see at the peak years. That doesn't mean S2 will not be successful, it will be. Probably easy over 100M or so.

After checking the preorder stock for the new Pokémon Bundle, I can say Nintendo actually has a TON of units on the way for the holiday season.

Something fun to note is that eBay charges you 15% of the sale price, plus shipping costs. So if you sell a Switch 2 for $600, you'll end up getting $510 after fees. Then subtract shipping, let's say just $20, and your net is $490. But don't forget you paid taxes on the original $450 system (assuming 5%), bringing your cost to $472.50. In the end, those scalpers are only pocketing about $20+ for all that effort haha!