*(NEW POLL)* The Road to 162m+ for Nintendo Switch 2

[Mnementh]

Optimistic. That said I think the Switch 2 will fall short of Switch 1. It certainly is more frontloaded, because nowadays everything is. But the real test is the peak years and Switch 1 had an *insane* peak. Beating that will be much harder and I don't see how S2 will be able to.

So let's argue a bit more detailed.

S2 is a great upgrade on S1 and will be very successful by that measure. But upgrades tend to be less exciting than the original new ideas. That includes the mouse function, because this is mostly a feature aimed to support already existing games on PC now on console. There are some possibilities playing with 2 mouse controllers, but this is limited. It will not allow for a new gaming experience that players need to play. DragxDrive is about what Nintendo could come up with, if they had a Wii Sports idea, we would see that.

But PS2 beat PS1 you say? Yes. because Sony was extending the market globally. They expanded especially into europe, but also other regions. That expanded market did help them immensely. They couldn't beat that afterwards, because the earth is limited. Some could argue, that China and India are entering on a more global scale, but both markets are difficult. But I agree, if these markets get easier in the lifetime of Switch 2, they may boost it past the first Switch. But that is a big IF.

To make my point clear: Switch is the consolidated hybrid experience (as was the 3DS the consolidated handheld experience) that is designed to allow for as much games as possible to play in that format. But it offers no generally new gaming experiences.

Now, there is one thing I should meantion that will help Switch 2: it will be the last traditional console. Yes, Xbox and Playstation will have new iterations of their hardware. But it will feel less like a platform (and in parts already does). Instead their consoles will be *one* place to guide players to their real goals, which is Gamepass for Xbox and life service games for Playstation. These real goals will be available on other platforms, possibly even Switch 2. Because Sony and MS want to expand the reach of these as much as they can. Which leaves only Switch 2 as the last classical console experience. But I doubt every Xbox/PS gamer is converted to Switch though. But some will, the same way as 3DS soaked up a lot of the PSP players and in turn Switch 2 a lot of the PS Vita players.

In conclusion: beating Switch will be unlikely, but if it does we will see at the peak years. That doesn't mean S2 will not be successful, it will be. Probably easy over 100M or so.