Probably? Less than likely, almost impossible. If Switch have showed anything is that Nintendo is willing to keep a successfull plataform as long as possible.

Specially now that technology will take even more time to have any minimal impact on the market. Nintendo is in a confortable spot to keep Switch2 for more than 10 years to get the best of their projects

That's certainly optimistic. Personally, I think the Switch 2 will follow a similar trajectory as the Switch 1 on up through 2027. Assuming Nintendo meets their sales target of 15M for the current fiscal year, that would be roughly what we'd expect for a Switch-like trajectory minus one quarter. The Switch 1 shipped 17.79M by March 31, 2018, which was about 13 months after launch. By March 31, 2026, the Switch 2 will have been around for only about 10 months. The Switch 1's sales in its first 13 months minus either Q2 or Q3 2017 would be either 15.83M or 14.86M.

So, 15M in ~10 months would be a good start for the Switch 2. I don't think the pricing situation will hurt it. I do think most people are cognizant enough of inflation, or else consoles would still cost $200-300 like they did 30 years ago when $400 was considered prohibitive. There will almost certainly be a de facto price cut in the form of a Switch 2 Lite, probably in time for the 2027 holiday season. Also, Nintendo will definitely have the games to keep people interested.

Assuming its still tracking on par with the Switch in its early years, I expect the Switch 2 to fall behind in 2028 & 2029. Unless there's something that produces some unexpected extra growth in mid-life like COVID did for the Switch 1, I think we'll see sales in 2028 & 2029 probably be on par with 2027, plus or minus a couple of million.

I think 120M will be the absolute floor, but I think the ceiling will be 150M, with a most likely range of 130-140M.

Without a 2-3 year megaboost from COVID shutdowns this is going to be tough to achieve.

Would need probably some kind of new break out hit IP to really bring in a new audience if possible.

Popularity from Nintendo's growing movie business might be the wild card. I can see the Mario sequel and Legend of Zelda live action movies being huge, huge blockbusters driving massive brand awareness, so that might be one thing they have in their back pocket.

Think there will be a Switch 2 Pro this time around to create a mid/post mid-cycle boost.

If things stay normal the Switch 2 will absolutely last a really long time like the Switch has but for technology the impact of AI could massively disrupt things if it advances as quickly in the next few years as some experts think it could since if that happens the Switch 2 could become extremely outdated fast. I sometimes forget about how potentially disruptive that could be within the next few years.

We'll see.

Game Boy and Switch had long lifecycles pre-replacement, especially Game Boy if you count Game Boy Advance as its replacement. They are outliers, with Famicom to Super Famicom as one of the few that came close. 

I know a lot of things are uncertain, but I think just because Switch wasn't replaced until over 8 years doesn't mean that's the minimum going forward. 

I mean I said a reason why it might get replaced sooner than that. If that doesn't impact things enough then I do think it should last a full 8 years though since like the Switch 1 Nintendo will wanna milk it for as long as they possibly can. The Switch 2 would have to underperform to a notable degree to have a shorter life I think.

Looks like scalpers are still going to make bank.  I was hoping there would have been an over abundant amount of stock to reduce this.

There is not chance in hell the S2 is selling 160 million units. You can grab this post right now and stick it in your favorites. It's not going to happen.

You stated that you can't say how well a console will do until after 2 years have passed.  What changed?