*(NEW POLL)* The Road to 162m+ for Nintendo Switch 2

[Shadow1980]

That's certainly optimistic. Personally, I think the Switch 2 will follow a similar trajectory as the Switch 1 on up through 2027. Assuming Nintendo meets their sales target of 15M for the current fiscal year, that would be roughly what we'd expect for a Switch-like trajectory minus one quarter. The Switch 1 shipped 17.79M by March 31, 2018, which was about 13 months after launch. By March 31, 2026, the Switch 2 will have been around for only about 10 months. The Switch 1's sales in its first 13 months minus either Q2 or Q3 2017 would be either 15.83M or 14.86M.

So, 15M in ~10 months would be a good start for the Switch 2. I don't think the pricing situation will hurt it. I do think most people are cognizant enough of inflation, or else consoles would still cost $200-300 like they did 30 years ago when $400 was considered prohibitive. There will almost certainly be a de facto price cut in the form of a Switch 2 Lite, probably in time for the 2027 holiday season. Also, Nintendo will definitely have the games to keep people interested.

Assuming its still tracking on par with the Switch in its early years, I expect the Switch 2 to fall behind in 2028 & 2029. Unless there's something that produces some unexpected extra growth in mid-life like COVID did for the Switch 1, I think we'll see sales in 2028 & 2029 probably be on par with 2027, plus or minus a couple of million.

I think 120M will be the absolute floor, but I think the ceiling will be 150M, with a most likely range of 130-140M.