I thought that one of the launch titles would be...well, it's not rumored, it is more of an educated extrapolated guesstimate on someone's part...

Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time Remake.

So I'm hoping that is their holidays big hitter.

Pokemon is not just a backwards compatible title, it’s a cross-generation release and a sequel to a game that sold 15 million. And yes, MK/DK were the most featured because they are launch window titles that hadn’t been shown yet.

And not each game in isolation but the combined effect. The Q4 Nintendo IP lineup could look like:

Kirby Air Riders-Oct 9

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond-Oct 23

Pokemon Legends: ZA-Nov 13

Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment-Dec 4

By your logic, Switch 1 didn’t have a major launch window title because Breath of the Wild was cross-generation and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was a late port.

It already has enough between cross-gen games, Mario Kart, DK, and Kirby.
I'd love 3D Mario or something else big, but Nintendo will be fine without it.

All of that in one game! Can you imagine?

There's only a handful of games with a Switch 2 Edition so far and their improvements have been pretty substantial. Those games had also been revealed and shown several times prior. They didn't need a lot of air time during the Switch 2 direct to stress their importance, just knowing they are releasing on Switch 2 is enough. Once people see extended footage of Pokemon running on Switch 2 leading up to it's release, it will be clear that's the place to buy it if you were on the fence.

The sales will certainly interesting here because there's a real possibility. The Switch 2 version will outsell the Switch version despite the 150M Switch base established already

Everyone is right.  Pokemon is the big holiday game, and also it is a bad idea to make it cross-gen.

Nintendo is in the arrogance phase of the Nintendo cycle right now.  Much is said about the business cycle, but little is said about the Nintendo cycle which goes like this:  First Nintendo fears failure, so they try hard and dig down deep and produce some really amazing software.  People call it "lightning in a bottle".  Then Nintendo gets really successful which makes them really arrogant.  Eventually their sales suffer greatly because of their arrogance.  Then they fear failure, dig down deep and produce some really amazing software.  People call it "lightning in a bottle" again.  And so the cycle continues.

Right now Nintendo is in the arrogance phase of their cycle.

There is a big difference here.  Almost no one owned a Wii U, and they also discontinued Wii U production when they launched the Switch.  BotW sales on the Wii U didn't really cut into Switch sales of BotW, because of its limited install base.  By contrast the Switch 1 will end up being the best selling system of all time.  It definitely will eat into potential Pokemon Z-A sales on the Switch 2.  Pokemon could have been a killer app for the Switch 2 if it was exclusive, but now it won't be because it's a cross-gen title with a really popular system.

We don't know who is developing DK yet, so if it's not the 3D Mario team, I can still see 3D Mario coming out in October/November (maybe do ZA for October and 3D Mario in November, which would be a nice 2013 callback....especially if GTA VI is still on track for 2025 lol).

It's been so long since the last 3D Mario game, so even if DK is made by them, I could still see 3D Mario coming for the holidays (if DK was a holiday title, I'd say that 3D Mario wouldn't happen this year). We did get Pikmin 3 & Mario Wonder in the same year, and I'm pretty sure there was overlap with the team. 8 years after Odyssey, and all they'd have is Balloon World, Bowser's Fury (which had assistance from other studios) & DK?

It's entirely possible that they weren't even working on DK anyways. When Peach Showtime was announced, people thought the 3D Mario team did it, but it turns out that it was Good-Feel.

Either way, I do think at least 1 more big Switch 2 exclusive will be announced before the end of the year for release during the holidays. They'd also announce at least one or two 2026 titles. Could see a Direct happening in July or August (and then another Pokemon Presents in August like recent years besides 2024). 3D Mario (or Mario in general) could get a dedicated Direct in September for the 40th anniversary).

Prime 4 could be Aug/Sep, ZA in Oct, 3D Mario in Nov with Air Riders & HW supplementing the first holiday. We'd then be back to our usual Feb-Jun-Sep Directs in 2026.

I actually doubt it. The Pokemon series was already slow to adopt new platforms. I remember Black&White2 coming out for DS even though 3DS already was on the market. The customers of the series are trained to not look for the most technically advanced gaming, as is evident by the lack of visual wow, even compared to other Switch titles. I think most Pokemon players will be completely content with the Switch version.

Well we're just talking about possibilities here, but also we can't underestimate the fact that Nintendo and Pokemon will likely push ZA with the Switch 2 as the lead version in advertisement anyway so people will likely ask for it first.