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Everyone is right.  Pokemon is the big holiday game, and also it is a bad idea to make it cross-gen.

Nintendo is in the arrogance phase of the Nintendo cycle right now.  Much is said about the business cycle, but little is said about the Nintendo cycle which goes like this:  First Nintendo fears failure, so they try hard and dig down deep and produce some really amazing software.  People call it "lightning in a bottle".  Then Nintendo gets really successful which makes them really arrogant.  Eventually their sales suffer greatly because of their arrogance.  Then they fear failure, dig down deep and produce some really amazing software.  People call it "lightning in a bottle" again.  And so the cycle continues.

Right now Nintendo is in the arrogance phase of their cycle.

zorg1000 said:
Mnementh said:

So, you're thinking the Switch release of Pokemon played via compatibility will be the big holiday title for Switch 2 launch year? Or a 3rd party game in Hyrule Warriors? This is the launch year. I am sure Nintendo has more lined up and waits until the system is in the hand of consumers to reveal more.

They didn't even put much importance on Pokemon in the Direct, the two most featured titles were Mario Kart and Donkey Kong at begin and end, and to a somewhat lesser degree Hyrule Warriors and Duskbloods. Pokemon got thrown in with a bunch of Switch games getting upgrade packs. This isn't their big holiday thing.

Pokemon is not just a backwards compatible title, it’s a cross-generation release and a sequel to a game that sold 15 million. And yes, MK/DK were the most featured because they are launch window titles that hadn’t been shown yet.

And not each game in isolation but the combined effect. The Q4 Nintendo IP lineup could look like:

Kirby Air Riders-Oct 9

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond-Oct 23

Pokemon Legends: ZA-Nov 13

Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment-Dec 4

By your logic, Switch 1 didn’t have a major launch window title because Breath of the Wild was cross-generation and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was a late port.

There is a big difference here.  Almost no one owned a Wii U, and they also discontinued Wii U production when they launched the Switch.  BotW sales on the Wii U didn't really cut into Switch sales of BotW, because of its limited install base.  By contrast the Switch 1 will end up being the best selling system of all time.  It definitely will eat into potential Pokemon Z-A sales on the Switch 2.  Pokemon could have been a killer app for the Switch 2 if it was exclusive, but now it won't be because it's a cross-gen title with a really popular system.