Assuming reasonable things like:
- successor is $399.99
- successor is popular
- Nintendo doesn't reduce the price of the Switch (okay this one is unreasonable because they should drop the price, but it's reasonable because it seems almost certain they won't because I think they would have already reduced the price at some point in the past year as sales slowed if they were going to do it at all)

...then no I definitely don't see it ever hitting 160m/PS2. Not even close.

Given these reasonable expectations I see the Switch hybrid sales dropping away to barely anything once next gen launches, while Lite will still sell as a cheap budget console for parents looking for an affordable system as a present for little kids (older kids are certainly going to be asking for Switch 2). If successor launches around May/June then Switch will probably be at 151.xx sales when it is replaced. With the $300/$350 models barely selling against a $400 brand new system I don't see Switch getting past 153.xx by end of 2025. 2026 will put it up at 154.xx. Maybe it can finish at 155.xx when it's all done.

Now if they do $50+ price cuts or if Nintendo does something really stupid like prices the Switch 2 out of decently affordable range, like pricing it at $450, then Switch should have some more life as the budget system and it might get a couple million more sales and maybe get as high as 157 or even 158m, but even then no way it is hitting 160m.

This is super pessimistic, 155 Million is the bare minimum the Switch will sell. The pace at which the Switch is going it's impossible for the end at only 155 Million when all said and done. You always seem to think Switch will automatically die as soon as the successor launches which hasn't been the case with previous consoles. Saying 160 Million is impossible isn't logical.

Next summer, mark me

I could see it being sometime in 2027. Specifically, until a time where Sony specifies the PS2's final total even more, I'd consider the Switch to beat it if it exceeds 161m. I see that happening in 2027. I do see the Switch obviously slowing down even more when a successor releases and after this holiday, I don't see it having a quarter exceeding 2m sales (maybe holiday 2025, but besides that, nothing). Ultimately, I think it might scrape past 160m at the end of 2026 and then pass 161m sometime in 2027, and then get discontinued sometime after that in 2027.

Considering how there is still no official price drop, I can see the Switch staying at its current price range for the three models. I can see Switch 2 launching with a model at $450 and one at $500. I just feel like the lowest priced non-Lite model of a Switch 2 should be at least $100 more than the OLED. I feel like $400 is too low if the Switch OLED is staying at $350, even if we are talking about a digital only Switch 2 with an LCD screen for a particular model.

I think that all of that with continued deals, ports, remasters, etc. can help Switch reach 161m. Hopefully they can sell at least 6m this holiday! Really tall order, but they do have some good deals (even better with Target & Best Buy that have the system bundles $75 off). Hard to beat a $225 Switch LCD with MK 8 DX & one month NSO.

Nintendo Switch will sell 500mil. That's my projection...assuming NSW2, NSW3, NSW4, NSW5 all count toward the NSW1 total sales figures. (Kinda like what they did with GameBoy and GameBoy Color.) Otherwise, maybe around 160-165mil.

The thing is that Nintendo platforms tend to drop like a stone once a successor is out, so until we know when exactly the Switch 2 launches, it's unpredictable if it could crawl all the way there.

Switch will have out-shipped DS numbers by this time next year and will be over 156m by December 31, 2025. So, I think it's safe to say Switch will have shipped 160m+ by the end of 2026.

Never, there's a shear flat drop off on the way, I can smell it in the air.

That’s really pessimistic. You’re giving reasons tailor made to justify your 155m prediction.

There’s no indication that the Switch will do worst than the forecast Nintendo have FY25. Even if it falls short of it, we’re still in the 152-153 range. 
The 3DS still manage to sell 6mil+ in FY18, after the Switch released and we still have no clue about when the successor will launch. But we know that, just like the 3DS, there’s still games coming in the coming year.

I would agree with this pessimism if there were no sign of future support, but that’s not the case.

Do you know what rounding means? He could have rounded up, it's a normal thing to do, and it was more believable than him rounding down, considering a 160m milestone was never announced or even alluded to by Sony until just a few days ago.

Heck, even now it was never announced, just shoved into some web page, and even then we could still assume it was rounded up if the page didn't specifically say "more than 160m".