I could see it being sometime in 2027. Specifically, until a time where Sony specifies the PS2's final total even more, I'd consider the Switch to beat it if it exceeds 161m. I see that happening in 2027. I do see the Switch obviously slowing down even more when a successor releases and after this holiday, I don't see it having a quarter exceeding 2m sales (maybe holiday 2025, but besides that, nothing). Ultimately, I think it might scrape past 160m at the end of 2026 and then pass 161m sometime in 2027, and then get discontinued sometime after that in 2027.
Considering how there is still no official price drop, I can see the Switch staying at its current price range for the three models. I can see Switch 2 launching with a model at $450 and one at $500. I just feel like the lowest priced non-Lite model of a Switch 2 should be at least $100 more than the OLED. I feel like $400 is too low if the Switch OLED is staying at $350, even if we are talking about a digital only Switch 2 with an LCD screen for a particular model.
I think that all of that with continued deals, ports, remasters, etc. can help Switch reach 161m. Hopefully they can sell at least 6m this holiday! Really tall order, but they do have some good deals (even better with Target & Best Buy that have the system bundles $75 off). Hard to beat a $225 Switch LCD with MK 8 DX & one month NSO.
Essay Pro