When will the Switch outsell the PS2 and pass 160M ?

[Slownenberg]

Assuming reasonable things like:
- successor is $399.99
- successor is popular
- Nintendo doesn't reduce the price of the Switch (okay this one is unreasonable because they should drop the price, but it's reasonable because it seems almost certain they won't because I think they would have already reduced the price at some point in the past year as sales slowed if they were going to do it at all)

...then no I definitely don't see it ever hitting 160m/PS2. Not even close.

Given these reasonable expectations I see the Switch hybrid sales dropping away to barely anything once next gen launches, while Lite will still sell as a cheap budget console for parents looking for an affordable system as a present for little kids (older kids are certainly going to be asking for Switch 2). If successor launches around May/June then Switch will probably be at 151.xx sales when it is replaced. With the $300/$350 models barely selling against a $400 brand new system I don't see Switch getting past 153.xx by end of 2025. 2026 will put it up at 154.xx. Maybe it can finish at 155.xx when it's all done.

Now if they do $50+ price cuts or if Nintendo does something really stupid like prices the Switch 2 out of decently affordable range, like pricing it at $450, then Switch should have some more life as the budget system and it might get a couple million more sales and maybe get as high as 157 or even 158m, but even then no way it is hitting 160m.