When will the Switch outsell the PS2 and pass 160M ?

[javi741]

Slownenberg said:

Assuming reasonable things like:
- successor is $399.99
- successor is popular
- Nintendo doesn't reduce the price of the Switch (okay this one is unreasonable because they should drop the price, but it's reasonable because it seems almost certain they won't because I think they would have already reduced the price at some point in the past year as sales slowed if they were going to do it at all)

...then no I definitely don't see it ever hitting 160m/PS2. Not even close.

Given these reasonable expectations I see the Switch hybrid sales dropping away to barely anything once next gen launches, while Lite will still sell as a cheap budget console for parents looking for an affordable system as a present for little kids (older kids are certainly going to be asking for Switch 2). If successor launches around May/June then Switch will probably be at 151.xx sales when it is replaced. With the $300/$350 models barely selling against a $400 brand new system I don't see Switch getting past 153.xx by end of 2025. 2026 will put it up at 154.xx. Maybe it can finish at 155.xx when it's all done.

Now if they do $50+ price cuts or if Nintendo does something really stupid like prices the Switch 2 out of decently affordable range, like pricing it at $450, then Switch should have some more life as the budget system and it might get a couple million more sales and maybe get as high as 157 or even 158m, but even then no way it is hitting 160m.

This is super pessimistic, 155 Million is the bare minimum the Switch will sell. The pace at which the Switch is going it's impossible for the end at only 155 Million when all said and done. You always seem to think Switch will automatically die as soon as the successor launches which hasn't been the case with previous consoles. Saying 160 Million is impossible isn't logical.