Slownenberg said:
Assuming reasonable things like:
- successor is $399.99
- successor is popular
- Nintendo doesn't reduce the price of the Switch (okay this one is unreasonable because they should drop the price, but it's reasonable because it seems almost certain they won't because I think they would have already reduced the price at some point in the past year as sales slowed if they were going to do it at all)
...then no I definitely don't see it ever hitting 160m/PS2. Not even close.
Given these reasonable expectations I see the Switch hybrid sales dropping away to barely anything once next gen launches, while Lite will still sell as a cheap budget console for parents looking for an affordable system as a present for little kids (older kids are certainly going to be asking for Switch 2). If successor launches around May/June then Switch will probably be at 151.xx sales when it is replaced. With the $300/$350 models barely selling against a $400 brand new system I don't see Switch getting past 153.xx by end of 2025. 2026 will put it up at 154.xx. Maybe it can finish at 155.xx when it's all done.
Now if they do $50+ price cuts or if Nintendo does something really stupid like prices the Switch 2 out of decently affordable range, like pricing it at $450, then Switch should have some more life as the budget system and it might get a couple million more sales and maybe get as high as 157 or even 158m, but even then no way it is hitting 160m. |
That’s really pessimistic. You’re giving reasons tailor made to justify your 155m prediction.
There’s no indication that the Switch will do worst than the forecast Nintendo have FY25. Even if it falls short of it, we’re still in the 152-153 range.
The 3DS still manage to sell 6mil+ in FY18, after the Switch released and we still have no clue about when the successor will launch. But we know that, just like the 3DS, there’s still games coming in the coming year.
I would agree with this pessimism if there were no sign of future support, but that’s not the case.
Essay Pro