Was there nothing on Russia-Ukraine? Shame since Vance arguably has even worse public statements on Ukraine than even Donald Trump and not just public statements but voting records to back it up too, Harris was able to expertly work Polish-Americans into her criticism of Trump's stance on Ukraine and it would have been even easier to blast Vance on it too.

That was like 2 wars ago. Get with the times.

New update with the Harris campaign widening the gap to new heights again. This time the aggregate average is up by 3.6%

Problem is that she's juuuuuuuust at the bare minimum of what she'd need to win. Hillary won by I believe about 2% in the popular vote but somehow lost because the system is fucked. So, these results show Kamala winning by juuuuuust enough, and of course polls could be wrong.

The good news though is I think it's unlikely that Trump's support is underestimated in these polls. In 2016, Trump had a little over 46% of the vote. In 2020 a little under that. So, unless Trump has somehow gained a lot of support, he doesn't have  much room for improvement. And... I really just don't see Trump improving over four years ago. If anything, we would expect the opposite considering who is entering and leaving the voting pool. The undecideds should, at worse, break even, and more likely will go more for Harris.

The problem you are talking about concerns the fundamentals of your dumb voting system, but the actual takeaway from the polling average should be that Harris keeps steadily improving. While early voting has already started in some states, there's still a whole month left until election day. By that time the average lead should be above 4.0%, perhaps even closer to 5.0% because Trump's mental state gets more unstable by the week.

Important to remember, though that it's all just about the distribution. Democrats have been losing ground in places like NY and CA where republicans are so far off they can't possibly have a shot, so if you maintain the same popular vote lead but more of that is distributed in the correct states you're set. 's why you're best off keeping track of the meaningful individual state polling rather than the overall number though that can give you current trends. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ There's a "path to 270" visual on this page that kinda shows you the true state of thing. 

The main reason Trump lost the popular vote is because he fares terribly on the West Coast, if he had Romney-like splits there he would have won the popular vote in 2016 and came within 2-3 points in 2020.

Now he could have a lot more Hispanic and NY votes but that won't help him flip any states except maybe AZ.

Best quote of the night.

LOL. But be assured, you can blame germany for it:

https://www.der-postillon.com/2024/09/ampel-schuld.html

Austria's far-right winning, Hungary already having a far-right government and the far-right increasing in Germany.

Joking But it is a bit worrying, from an individual countries perspective, doesn't help that they all suck up to Russia too.