By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo to announce Switch's successor this FY, Switch 1 Direct coming in June

Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Nintendo has said that their forecasts don't include the next system. 

And even if Switch 2 was supposed to come out this year but delayed, it is unlikely they planned nothing for the current system from June onwards, you don't just bail on a userbase of 140 million plus that's bringing you record profits at the first opportunity.

We live in an era where PS4 and Xbox One are still getting games over 3 years after their replacement. Heck, even 3DS got games in 2017, 2018, and 2019 alongside Switch.

The big stuff is behind us, but small to medium sized content should continue for a while yet.

Could also mean they are planning heavy software/hardware bundles and that would be counted as a software sale over the 2nd half of the year in particular. 

Although really I doubt stockholders are going to be all that upset if the software part of the sales forecast includes Switch 2 software, Nintendo will just shrug it away and say they did reach the stated sales number. 

This Direct will provide a great timetable of the Switch, filled with remakes, new additions to series, and MP4.

The Successor will have mini presentations and twitter posts that will advertise and reveal it along the way (thought that will be probably be more closer to 2025).

Console price drops

Bundles

Software Price Drops

New Hardware in the Switch family

The Successor won't launch until either March or after Mar 31 2025. I think it's lookin like after Mar 31 2025.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Around the Network
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Nintendo has said that their forecasts don't include the next system. 

And even if Switch 2 was supposed to come out this year but delayed, it is unlikely they planned nothing for the current system from June onwards, you don't just bail on a userbase of 140 million plus that's bringing you record profits at the first opportunity.

We live in an era where PS4 and Xbox One are still getting games over 3 years after their replacement. Heck, even 3DS got games in 2017, 2018, and 2019 alongside Switch.

The big stuff is behind us, but small to medium sized content should continue for a while yet.

Could also mean they are planning heavy software/hardware bundles and that would be counted as a software sale over the 2nd half of the year in particular. 

Although really I doubt stockholders are going to be all that upset if the software part of the sales forecast includes Switch 2 software, Nintendo will just shrug it away and say they did reach the stated sales number. 

As someone who actually is a stockholder, yes, I would be upset if Nintendo blatantly lied to me in their forecasts.



psychicscubadiver said:
Soundwave said:

Could also mean they are planning heavy software/hardware bundles and that would be counted as a software sale over the 2nd half of the year in particular. 

Although really I doubt stockholders are going to be all that upset if the software part of the sales forecast includes Switch 2 software, Nintendo will just shrug it away and say they did reach the stated sales number. 

As someone who actually is a stockholder, yes, I would be upset if Nintendo blatantly lied to me in their forecasts.

Not too mention I am pretty sure that would be fraud under the Security and Exchange Commission.  



i7-13700k

Vengeance 32 gb

RTX 4090 Ventus 3x E OC

Having an aggressive forecast that will be difficult to reach breaks no law, lol, is Sony under fraud investigation for setting a ridiculous 25 million unit PS5 target last fiscal year that they then badly missed and most reasonable people could have said was overly high even a year ago? You can be as ambitious with a sales target and as unrealistic with one as you want, there is absolutely no law that says you have to set realistic sales targets. 

Furukawa has said the forecast is ambitious and will be a challenge to meet, so he's even clear on that. The only real obligation a company has is to accurately report their financials in the numbers and not mislead on those. Earnings per share, operating income, debt, etc. etc. If there's evidence that a company has willfully lied on their balance sheet, that's a very different can of worms.

A company is not even beholden to disclose sales on individual game products at all, look at Square-Enix, they won't give their shareholders any actual sales numbers on Final Fantasy VII Rebirth or Final Fantasy 16 because there is no law that says they have to. They can share that if they want, or not share if they don't want to. As we know, Microsoft stopped sharing XBox hardware sales updates a few years ago too, that's not technically illegal either. 

No one will care that much about Switch 1 sales targets this time next year when Nintendo has report because all the attention is going to be on Switch 2 and its probable launch, Nintendo knows that full well, when a new hardware launches or is about to launch its sucks all the media attention, investor attention, etc. etc. etc. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 17 May 2024

Soundwave said:

Having an aggressive forecast that will be difficult to reach breaks no law, lol, is Sony under fraud investigation for setting a ridiculous 25 million unit PS5 target last fiscal year that they then badly missed and most reasonable people could have said was overly high even a year ago? You can be as ambitious with a sales target and as unrealistic with one as you want, there is absolutely no law that says you have to set realistic sales targets. 

Furukawa has said the forecast is ambitious and will be a challenge to meet, so he's even clear on that. The only real obligation a company has is to accurately report their financials in the numbers and not mislead on those. Earnings per share, operating income, debt, etc. etc. If there's evidence that a company has willfully lied on their balance sheet, that's a very different can of worms.

A company is not even beholden to disclose sales on individual game products at all, look at Square-Enix, they won't give their shareholders any actual sales numbers on Final Fantasy VII Rebirth or Final Fantasy 16 because there is no law that says they have to. They can share that if they want, or not share if they don't want to. As we know, Microsoft stopped sharing XBox hardware sales updates a few years ago too, that's not technically illegal either. 

No one will care that much about Switch 1 sales targets this time next year when Nintendo has report because all the attention is going to be on Switch 2 and its probable launch, Nintendo knows that full well, when a new hardware launches or is about to launch its sucks all the media attention, investor attention, etc. etc. etc. 

You’re really missing the point people are making. None of your hypotheticals about shareholders not caring or whatever are relevant.

Obviously Nintendo could miss their forecast, they even claimed it would be a challenge as you pointed out, the point is that they wouldn’t make that forecast if they didn’t think it was possible and they wouldn’t think it’s possible if they didn’t have strong software planned.

Nintendo knows they aren’t hitting 13.5 million hardware & 165 million software, a roughly ~15% YoY decline, if Paper Mario/Luigi’s Mansion remasters in May/June were the biggest titles planned for the FY.

And regardless of their forecast, they wouldn’t be pumping out a game per month in the first half of the calendar year if they didn’t have anything planned for the second half.

You keep bringing up how shareholders won’t be mad as long as Switch 2 comes out a big success but it’s completely irrelevant and ignores the points people are making.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

Having an aggressive forecast that will be difficult to reach breaks no law, lol, is Sony under fraud investigation for setting a ridiculous 25 million unit PS5 target last fiscal year that they then badly missed and most reasonable people could have said was overly high even a year ago? You can be as ambitious with a sales target and as unrealistic with one as you want, there is absolutely no law that says you have to set realistic sales targets. 

Furukawa has said the forecast is ambitious and will be a challenge to meet, so he's even clear on that. The only real obligation a company has is to accurately report their financials in the numbers and not mislead on those. Earnings per share, operating income, debt, etc. etc. If there's evidence that a company has willfully lied on their balance sheet, that's a very different can of worms.

A company is not even beholden to disclose sales on individual game products at all, look at Square-Enix, they won't give their shareholders any actual sales numbers on Final Fantasy VII Rebirth or Final Fantasy 16 because there is no law that says they have to. They can share that if they want, or not share if they don't want to. As we know, Microsoft stopped sharing XBox hardware sales updates a few years ago too, that's not technically illegal either. 

No one will care that much about Switch 1 sales targets this time next year when Nintendo has report because all the attention is going to be on Switch 2 and its probable launch, Nintendo knows that full well, when a new hardware launches or is about to launch its sucks all the media attention, investor attention, etc. etc. etc. 

You’re really missing the point people are making. None of your hypotheticals about shareholders not caring or whatever are relevant.

Obviously Nintendo could miss their forecast, they even claimed it would be a challenge as you pointed out, the point is that they wouldn’t make that forecast if they didn’t think it was possible and they wouldn’t think it’s possible if they didn’t have strong software planned.

Nintendo knows they aren’t hitting 13.5 million hardware & 165 million software, a roughly ~15% YoY decline, if Paper Mario/Luigi’s Mansion remasters in May/June were the biggest titles planned for the FY.

And regardless of their forecast, they wouldn’t be pumping out a game per month in the first half of the calendar year if they didn’t have anything planned for the second half.

You keep bringing up how shareholders won’t be mad as long as Switch 2 comes out a big success but it’s completely irrelevant and ignores the points people are making.

Out of curiosity @Soundwave 

How many Switch units do you think Nintendo will ship this FY?

There has already been ~548,448 units sold as of April numbers for Japan & Europe, and including May 6-12 in Japan. (We are looking at around 750k at a minimum for April.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

I mean, anyone thinking Nintendo has no software planned for the 2nd half of this calendar year despite just having a fair first half with a constant stream of medium-smaller titles will have to rethink on it soon.

The announcement of the June Direct is the proof of that. The nature of the software will get ? Don't know though



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Yeah if they really had no unannounced games left for Switch, Princess Peach Showtime and the Paper Mario remake would have been held back for the second half of the year.

There's no way Nintendo just decided "oh yeah we're gonna walk away from the most profitable system we've ever had before it's even replaced".



curl-6 said:

Yeah if they really had no unannounced games left for Switch, Princess Peach Showtime and the Paper Mario remake would have been held back for the second half of the year.

There's no way Nintendo just decided "oh yeah we're gonna walk away from the most profitable system we've ever had before it's even replaced".

If you (and anyone else) could see the future for this Direct. What games would be announced?

Personally, I think there'd be:

Legend of Zelda remakes (either WW or TP)

Metroid 2 & 3 remakes

Metroid 4

Super Mario Wonder DLC

Super Mario Party 2

DK 2D game

Ngl looking at this list, this Direct would be rather stacked.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah if they really had no unannounced games left for Switch, Princess Peach Showtime and the Paper Mario remake would have been held back for the second half of the year.

There's no way Nintendo just decided "oh yeah we're gonna walk away from the most profitable system we've ever had before it's even replaced".

If you (and anyone else) could see the future for this Direct. What games would be announced?

Personally, I think there'd be:

Legend of Zelda remakes (either WW or TP)

Metroid 2 & 3 remakes

Metroid 4

Super Mario Wonder DLC

Super Mario Party 2

DK 2D game

Ngl looking at this list, this Direct would be rather stacked.

I think your list is pretty much in line with mine, although I'm not sure if they really will show Metroid Prime 4, maybe they want to let it first shine on Switch 2 (but will still cross-release on Switch 1). Even Metroid Prime 3 remaster maybe will not come out in this FY. I personally don't think Super Mario Wonder will have any DLC. I could see maybe a Tomodachi Life as well. What I personally would prefer over Zelda WW and TP remakes (they can release them in FY26 for both, Switch 1+2) is a brand new Zelda Four Swords Adventure

I initially thought a Pokémon remake and/or spin-off is possible but The Pokémon Company already had their Pokémon Direct back in February and they showcaste everything up to Pokémon Z-A, releasing in Q1 of next year. They would have announced it there, if there would be anything else on the Pokémon front. I really think the Donkey Kong (2.5D or 3D is possible) game will be the (somewhat) big holidays title.

Last edited by Fight-the-Streets - on 18 May 2024