I feel like Nintendo would be better served saving Mario Party for year 1 of the next system, but if we get another one on Switch, they probably won't have it year one on the successor. I guess that's fine assuming we have the likes of 3D Mario, Mario Kart & Animal Crossing early on.

I have my doubts on a new Mario Party for the current Switch, especially after having heard rumors from (highly(!) reputable) Mindori on project Banquet. And a new 2D Donkey Kong would be a welcomed surprise, sounds exactly like a Nintendo move lol.

(If Nintendo literally were to just remake WW and/or TP for Switch, I would be totally satisfied with the second half of 2024.)

Rumors suggest the Wii U Kirby game is getting a port, and Super Mario Bros 3 has a remake in development. I’m doubtful on the latter releasing this year, but the Kirby port seems certain.

Let's look at last first parties on previous systems. It might give us a clue what to expect this year.

NES: Wario Woods
SNES: Kirby's Dreamland3 (1997)
N64: Dr. Mario 64 (2001)
GameCube: LoZ Twillight Princess (2006)
Wii: Kirby Dream Collection (2012)
Wii U: LoZ Breath of the Wild

With no cross gen Zelda game expected, my bet is on Kirby (new game, remaster or collection)

I'm not good with predictions, but I'd say we'll get some ports from previous consoles like maybe the rumored Kirby and the Rainbow Curse and perhaps as you say Prime 2/3 or Wind Waker/Twilight Princess. A Fire Emblem remake is also rumored, and I expect we'll get at least one new game, perhaps something medium sized like Princess Peach Showtime but for a different IP.

Prime 4 is the wildcard; it's been 5 and a half years since it was rebooted under Retro, so this feels like the "final call" for it to be shown if it's still a Switch 1 game. If it's not at this Direct, I'll take that as confirmation that it's either crossgen or next gen and they're holding it back to show alongside Switch 2.

Huh, not that I believe in rumors but how do you expect them to port a game like Kirby and the Rainbow Curse which used specifically the WiiU Gamepad for it's gameplay ? Seems like a counter intuitive experience if you can't use the touch screen to draw the path.
It's most likely possible in handheld mode but in TV mode ....

Anyway, expect a new Warriors game hehe !

I feel like we’ve this discussion with almost all Wii U ports. If they could pull it off with Captain Toad and Mario 3D World, I see no way Nintendo won’t find a work around. Just using the Mario Galaxy pointer to draw the lines.

If MP4 is not is the Direct then it will be a cross-gen. But I do think MP2/3 will be released this second half, in order to hype people up. (I think they'll bundle 2 & 3 together considering 3 didn't sell as well as expected. Like how they bundled Pikmin 1+2, but that's for different reasons).

I guess the reason why I say there will be Super Mario Bros Wonder DLC is because every Mainline 2D/3D Mario game after New Super Mario Bros Wii has gotten some sort of a DLC.

I would personally love a Tomodachi or Rhythm Heaven. Rhythm Heaven has hopes in the future for sure, the producer Tsunku, in 2019 talked about a want to make another addition to the series, and in 2020 asked fans what they want to see in the next one. And in 2022 still expressed his want to make one.

Another 4 Swords would be amazing!

Technically The Pokémon Company can still announce something for this November (they should be having their Presents in August). They can sneak attack surprise us, though I doubt it. I still have hopes for a final holiday release before Legends Z-A. If they do announce something for the holiday, the only thing that makes sense is Let's Go Johto (since ILCA and Game Freak made a bond creating Pokémon Works earlier this year, and they'll have most of the assets from Let's Go Pikachu & Eevee already to make the game).

I saw the post about Kirby and I can see that now as well. A Fire Emblem game could be possible but I think they might want that for the first year of the Successor, in order to expand their base.

The usability of the WiiU functions in Captain Toad or Mario 3D World aren't anything to write hom about though. 

I don't see a way to turn around the gamepad functionality that will at least feel natural enough on TV mode. 

The pointer in Mario Galaxy isn't used in the same way, you'd have to for Rainbow Curse. I don't think it's impossible though, but the experience will definitely feel subpar control wise to what we had on WiiU. 

Anywoo, it's HAL's choice anyway so we'll see if this has any validity to begin with. Honestly, they'd win more by porting one of the main 3DS games than a spinoff in any case.

A Warriors game is actually a safe bet I reckon.

We've seen 4 of them on Switch already, and since they made a BOTW Warriors title (Age of Calamity) I wouldn't be surprised if they're making a TOTK one too.

As mentioned before, my personal favourite would be a new Zelda: Four Swords Adventure but I would also take a new Link's Crossbow Training but done right this time. Personally, I would also like to see a new Ice Climber game or a new Ballon Fight game, the latter in 3d with remote control, that could be great, honestly. As I'm already digging deep in the archive, new interpretations of Clu Clu Land and Wrecking Crew I would take as well.

As always, I also want the obvious racing quartet: F-Zero, Wave Race, 1080° Snowboarding and Excitebike (and the more exotic Excitebot and Stunt Race FX).

...and not to forget a new Star Fox.

I'm aware that of all the aformentioned games only a new Zelda: Fours Swords Adventure has at least some kind of a chance to come out and to be honest, none of those game would be a system seller but someone can dream... .