XtremeBG said:
The wrong is the exact to the point prediction. For milions, it's literally gambling to predict up to the thousands. That's why most of the people predict rounded numbers - 35, 34, 36, 38 if you want. To be exact accurate on thousands is pure gambling. This is the oddity. For bigger numbers like worldwide ones, especially above 100M for example, to me pointing at even round number such as 120-140-150-160M can be gambling too if you are not at the end of the road and real close to the end of a console. That's why I like to give ranges for example, for the bigger numbers when we are still far from them. But to point number up to the thousands is just another level. You can't pinpoint up to the decimals, thousands or hundreds like that cuz the chances are pretty much none existent that you will be right in the end. |
And I am totally fine if I turn out wrong. That's just what I expect it to be.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
| 123tbones said: Is there any other releases in Japan announced that could really bolster Playstation 5 sales? The only one I can think of is Monster Hunter Wilds, buts that's for another year. |
Nope. Stellar Blade might move the needle a little, but that's basically it until Monster Hunter Wilds.
Shtinamin_ said:
Ok. Is there anything wrong with having a 38.08M prediction for total Switch units sold in Japan in its lifetime? What’s yours? |
There’s nothing wrong with it, just kinda weird to get that specific, most people will round to the nearest million.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
2nd best week 15 ever? Only surpassed by the Covid/Animal Crossing juggernaut.
I don't often use terms like unprecedented but here we are defying all the standard norms of a conventional hardware life cycle.
2nd best “week 15” EVER for Switch in Japan. Insanity!
interesting tears on the kingdom is less then 90k then botw
Yeah that's pretty much it til next year for PS5 in terms of heavy hitters, unless there's something huge that hasn't been unveiled yet. And frankly, if the combined impact of FF7, Dragon's Dogma, and Rise of the Ronin all at once didn't move the needle, I doubt even Monster Hunter will majorly change its fortunes beyond a short term bump.
| pavel1995 said: interesting tears on the kingdom is less then 90k then botw |
Lifetime, it's about 300k between them, which makes sense as BOTW has been selling for 7 years versus 10 months for TOTK, and the fact that a lot of casuals will have had their fill with BOTW and not feel compelled to invest another 50-100 hours in revisiting the world.
Maybe square should have done a traditional remake for FF7 and put it on the switch.
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